As the governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli comes down to its final two days, four polls underscore the tightness of the contest. The four polling efforts all had end dates between Oct. 28 and 30, all showed Sherrill in the lead, and all but one showed Ciattarelli closing, with two suggesting it may be a dead heat on Election Day.
Two polls show Sherrill leading by 4 to 8 percentage points. One, conducted by Suffolk University, put Sherrill with 46% of the vote and Ciattarelli with 42%. The other, by Quinnipiac University, found Sherrill ahead by a more comfortable margin, 51% to 43%.
Two other new polls see the race as a dead heat, with an Emerson College poll giving Sherrill a 1-point advantage at 49% to Ciattarelli’s 48%. Another poll, from AtlasIntel, with results released Oct. 31, has the same 1-point difference, with 50% for Sherrill and 49% for Ciattarelli.
A gender break has shown up in the polling, with Ciattarelli gaining in support from men and Sherrill increasing her claim on women voters.
Counting the money spent during the primaries, this has become the most expensive run for the governor’s office in the state’s history. It is also a race in which early voting is demonstrating continued popularity.
As of Friday, Oct. 31, more than 1 million New Jerseyans had already cast their ballots either by mail or through in-person early voting. These early votes represent 15% of the 6.6 million registered voters in the state. Even Ciattarelli cast his vote early, in Bridgewater on Friday.
In both methods of early voting the party registration of those casting early votes is known, though how they voted is not, until Election Day. The vote by mail or in-person as of Friday, Oct. 31, showed 52% coming from Democrats, 29% from Republicans, and 19% from others.
Contact the reporter, Vince Conti, at vconti@cmcherald.com.
