Winter’s Coming

COURT HOUSE – Dennis Roberts, at the Bellevue Tavern, in Court House, said he’s been lucky this summer, with room for outside tables and a loyal clientele.
September marked his best month since the advent of COVID-19. Was it a good month compared to the same time last year? Not even close.
Restaurants in Cape May County and throughout New Jersey suffered a beating this year. After a remarkably strong beginning to 2020, restaurants were among the hardest hit industries this spring, and most endured a dismal summer, with reduced capacity, reluctant customers, and new procedures enacted to keep customers and staff members safe.
Many restaurants won’t make it, especially independent ones that make up most of Cape May County’s eateries. Marilou Halvorsen, president, New Jersey Restaurant and Hospitality Association, estimates that as many as 35% of the state’s independent restaurants could permanentlyclose by the end of the year.
In Cape May County, Vicki Clark, president, Cape May County Chamber of Commerce, believes the local losses won’t be quite that high, but she expects 2020’s impact on the industry to be felt for years to come.
“Even if it’s 10%, that would be significant,” she said. “Restaurants are the single-largest employer statewide.”
Towns throughout the county eased rules and reworked ordinances to help restaurants stay afloat, from allowing public consumption of alcohol, in Cape May and North Wildwood, to simplifying the process for restaurants to offer outside dining, in Stone Harbor and Upper Township. 
Most towns made some accommodation, and Clark said multiple days of good weather helped keep outdoor tables a viable option. 
As the weather cools, sitting outside for dinner may become a tougher sell. Gov. Phil Murphy allowed inside dining, but only at a quarter of the usual capacity. According to Halvorsen, that is not enough.
A Difficult Year All-around
“The spring was not very good. We were only allowed to do takeout,” said Roberts. The restaurant offered value meals that could feed a family, which proved popular, he said, but some of the high-profit items that sustain food service places, like alcohol sales and desserts, are rarely included in a takeout order.
When Murphy cleared restaurants for outside dining, business returned, to some degree, but, as Roberts said, he was lucky, with enough room to set up outside tables. 
Some restaurants went to great lengths, installing tents and lighting, even covering parking areas with artificial grass or brick pavers, trying to make the experience inviting for diners.
“Places that are situated on the water or with a view did very well,” he said. Other businesses did not have a viable spot for outside tables, which meant a big hit through the summer.
Those already oriented toward takeout also did well, according to Bill McGinnity, president, Ocean City Restaurant Association, including pizzerias, sandwich shops, and some Chinese restaurants that already relied on takeout orders.
McGinnity said he opened his restaurant as soon as he could, in the spring, concentrating on takeout, even when he was doing it alone, taking orders and cooking without employees.
Liquor stores also had a good year, Roberts said.   
“Drive-thru has done exceptionally well,” said Halvorsen.
Ironically, the strong performance early in the year made businesstougher in the spring, Roberts said, because the bills for the inventory and supplies used months earlier came due when restaurants had almost no business. 
There was some help, including the federal Payroll Protection Program, but there is no doubt restaurants and other businesses are feeling the squeeze.
“We’ve got to get the economy moving again, and get people back to work,” Halvorsen said.
A Balancing Act
A chart of new COVID-19 cases, in New Jersey, shows a sharp increase, in March, and thousands of new cases, in April and May, the data that led Murphy to impose strict limits. There were 4,305 new cases reported April 2, and no way of knowing how high that number might climb. 
The totals dropped considerably since then, with a low of 13 new cases Aug. 17, but that number hasn’t reached zero since New Jersey saw its first infection and appears to be edging up again. According to state reports, New Jersey saw 740 new cases Oct. 1.
Cape May County tended to fare better than most of the state, but here, too, there have been recent increases, with the total number of infected residents Oct. 1 higher than Sept. 1.
There are active cases in most municipalities, with Ocean City seeing 28 active cases that day, a high for that community. Middle Township was close behind, with 25 cases, and there were 20, in Lower Township, according to a report released by the county.
Murphy signed an executive order Sept. 4 allowing diners inside restaurants, citing the progress seen statewide, but the order limits restaurants to 25% of the normal capacity, with a total limit of 100.
“Our job now is to ensure that this resumption only leads to future expansions of indoor capacity limits and that we do not have to take a step backward,” said Murphy, in the state’s announcement of the decision.
Halvorsen was quoted in that statement, as well, praising the governor for communicating with the industry and looking forward to a safe reopening. In a recent interview, however, she said 25% will not be enough to see restaurants through the winter.
“People are not going to be able to do outside dining much longer,” she said. The increases in infections have been linked to other gatherings, she said, adding that even the governor went out of his way to state the reported spikes are not attributable to restaurants, where she said staff can enforce social distance rules and implement sanitation guidelines.
“We shouldn’t be slowing down our business growth and closing down our businesses,” she said. “If we had more openings for controlled spaces to gather, that would give people someplace to go that would be safe.”
Other states went up to 50% capacity or even 75%, she said, looking forward to when New Jersey will do the same.
For many restaurants, it doesn’t make sense to open at a quarter of the usual capacity, said McGinnity.
“At 25%, you lose money. You’ve got to be at least at 70%,” he said.
“If we don’t receive an increased capacity by mid-October, we’re going to be in trouble,” said Roberts.
Some Changes Are Here to Stay
A lot of restaurants have gotten very creative, said Clark, creating new outdoor spaces and improvising takeout windows, but the industry is under pressure.
“I think it will have a long-term impact on restaurants, in Cape May County,” she said.
Restaurants face new expenses, and there were persistent issues with supply chain, Roberts said, with shortages on umbrellas, tents, and other items needed to set up outside dining. Finding and keeping staff was also an issue, according to those interviewed.
The reductions also hurt staff members, in terms of tips, on which many in foodservice depend. According to Roberts, the crisis brought out the best and worst in people. 
Those who were cranky to begin with seemed to become more so, he said, while others became more generous, over tipping on takeout orders with the understanding that people were struggling to get by.
Other increased expenses include containers for takeout meals. Roberts said his business uses plastic containers, as well as paper and plastic bags, so he’s looking with trepidation at a bill to ban most single-use plastics, which is passed in the Legislature and awaiting Murphy’s signature. 
Some changes were positive. Each of those interviewed said customers enjoy the experience of outside dining and expect that to become a part of the restaurant scene, in New Jersey, long after the pandemic has passed.
When that may be can’t be known. The announcement that President Donald Trump and many in his inner circle have the virus has driven home the point that COVID-19 remains a threat. Its impact is likely to continue in the long term, Roberts believes.
“This probably will rival the Great Depression. I don’t expect it to go away that quickly,” he said. Until there is a vaccine readily available and effective treatment options, he said, businesses and the rest of society will have to continue to adjust to a much different world.
“I survived Hurricane Sandy. The thing about that, though, is it came and did its destruction and went away. This thing, we still don’t know where the end is,” said McGinnity.
To contact Bill Barlow, email bbarlow@cmcherald.com.