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COURT HOUSE – There are four scenarios one hears most for the shape of the county’s post-pandemic world – that way of life we will come to call normal, once again.
First, some optimistically predict a rebound, a return to the pre-COVID-19 normal interrupted by the appearance of the coronavirus and the measures taken to combat it.
Next come pessimists with predictions of doom, an economy so badly damaged that it will take years to recover and a way of life so dependent on that economy in mortal danger.
Third are the moralists, predicting that the coronavirus opened the door to a world of greater compassion, social justice, and deeper environmental concern. Change will come for the better, at least by the standards they apply.
Lastly, are those who admit that significant alterations in the economic and social life of the county and the nation are underway, and no one has any idea where they will end up.
This last position rings true in that it is hard to imagine life in the county, state, and nation will not show long-term effects from this once-in-a-century pandemic, that those results will not be uniformly good, and that no one has a real handle on what the changes will be.
Old Normal
If the optimists are right, what is the old normal the county will return to? What was the old normal?
The county pre-coronavirus was on a roll. The tourist economy was growing each year, with 2019 as a banner year.
The population is aging, with the highest mean age in the state. Enrollments in county public schools were declining, leading to the prospect of the loss of significant state aid based on new formulas.
Unemployment has always been cyclical, with double-digit levels in the winter and one of the state’s best employment levels in the peak summer tourism season.
Cape May County’s share of the state’s second homes was continuing to grow, with several island communities with less than 15% of their occupancy units housing permanent members of the population.
A shrinking year-round population swells each year to more than 600,000 people in the county on a busy weekend in summer. Waves of visitors mean that millions of visitors vacationed in the county each year. Canada was contributing as much as 7%-9% of those visitors.
Too seasonal to attract national chains, the economy is built around small businesses that fight for their share of the tourist dollars. The other growth business is health care, aimed at the aging permanent population. Construction, also, flourished, as large numbers of new vacation homes are erected each year on the barrier islands.
The spike in demand for shore property, most of it from individuals who don’t intend to make that property their permanent residence, was sighted as a long-term economic positive when Moody’s Investment Services recently maintained the county’s Aa1 credit rating.
Efforts are underway to try and diversify the economy, but it is hard to buck the gravitational pull of a $6.6-billion-a-year seasonal economy.
It is an economy built not just around tourism but also pulsating waves of tourists crowding the highways north and south on Saturdays. Turnover was an essential part of the mix, as it produced new groups anxious to visit the county’s attractions.
Impact of the Pandemic
The impact of COVID-19 was a surprise. Uncertainty in the spring gave way to crowds, as the summer progressed.
Second homeowners decided, in large numbers, that their vacation homes in the county were the best place to wait out the coronavirus. Even rentals saw unexpected spikes, as the county’s reported infection rate remained relatively low, creating an attraction for those from urban or semi-urban settings.
Long interruptions of work and school enabled escapes to the shore, with many staying for longer stretches than in the past. How much this benefited local businesses will be a tale told in numbers not yet available. For some businesses that have closed for good, it was a fatal blow.
One thing certain is that the pandemic fueled an expanding real estate market. Real estate professionals point to buyers and renters citing safety concerns, as they seek properties at the shore. More open space and fewer people year-round make shore communities attractive.
Low-interest rates help fuel the surge in activity, leaving inventories of homes for sale at surprisingly low levels, and prices climbing.
New Jersey Realtors data shows evidence of the increase in interest. Stone Harbor and Avalon are seeing 8%-9% year-to-date increases in median sales prices in expensive properties. Cape May experienced a 10% increase in closed sales year to date.
While there is obvious activity on the barrier islands, even mainland communities are showing that the months of supply of inventory is declining, while median sales prices increase.
Some school districts are seeing an increase in enrollments, as well. Adding new students during a period of reduced capacity for in-person instruction is a challenge.
Extended stays by second homeowners, as well as the uptick in home sales, also puts stresses in other areas. Recently, Stone Harbor saw a spike in residential water usage that placed the borough close to its monthly state allocation limits. Trash pickup also increased significantly in many communities.
Questions are many.
If businesses start staying open long after the traditional end of the tourism season, is the employee base available in the county without the summer reliance on out-of-county help?
If beaches get more use after the high school and college-age cadre of guards has gone, are there new safety concerns that need to be addressed?
Can island communities that traditionally shrink to smaller numbers of police personnel after the summer continue to shrink as much as before?
How do businesses that depend on weekly turnovers and new groups of visitors adjust to longer stays and less volatility? Do some attractions have less appeal when someone has been here three months rather than being part of a new group?
The coronavirus and the adjustments to it may bring about unpredictable changes that could alter the traditional rhythm of the county’s summer experience.
What is the post-COVID-19 world going to look like? How far away is post-coronavirus normalcy? No one knows, but the patterns of this summer suggest change could come in many forms.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.
