RIO GRANDE – Does the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) predict any possible storms that would cause major flooding and beach erosion along the New Jersey coast this winter?
That puzzler was asked by the Herald Oct. 19 of Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, during a media conference call.
“We tilt toward warm and wet at this point, the most likely outcome will be a warmer, wetter winter,” said Halpert.
He added, “We never rule anything out. La Nina would be a larger concern if we were going toward an El Nino than La Nina. We don’t see that. But we see that happen less frequently during La Nina winters.
“Typically the storm track would be to your (Cape May County’s) west. That doesn’t mean we can see one, just that the odds are not in its favor this year,” said Halpert.
The U.S. Winter Outlook stated that La Nina would be “potentially emerging for the second year in a row as the biggest wildcard in how this year’s winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55-65 percent chance of developing before winter sets in.
“If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” Halpert stated.
“Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.”
For December through February, the precipitation is likely to be wetter than average across most of the northern U.S. Drier conditions are called for in the South.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal along the East Coast, according to the forecast.
The next such prediction will be in mid-November.
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