Near-normal Hurricane Season Predicted

WASHINGTON – Although a “near normal” Atlantic hurricane season is predicted for this coming season, officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said May 23 that it’s “still a lot of activity” and people in these areas should prepare now for how they and their families could be impacted.
For the season which officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30, NOAA predicts a likely range of nine to 15 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or higher), of which four to eight could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence, meaning they are accurate in seven out of 10 seasons, according to officials.
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. 
Competing Factors
This outlook reflects competing climate factors, according to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season,” he explained at a press conference May 23. “Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.”
This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
There has been one officially named storm so far, Subtropical Storm Andrea, south of Bermuda, May 20-21. 
Prepare Now for Season
“New satellite data and other upgrades to products and services from NOAA enable a more weather-ready nation by providing the public and decision makers with the information needed to take action before, during, and after a hurricane,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.
Daniel Kaniewski, Ph.D., acting deputy Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administrator, noted, “It only takes one storm to cause great damage to you, your family, your community. You need to protect yourself now before the season starts.”
Kaniewski suggested a number of items to prepare for the hurricane season:
* Build a kit – make sure it has food, water, medications for you and your family for at least 72 hours.
* Plan how you will communicate with family and friends – the storm could knock out phone lines and electricity.
* Identify your evacuation routes – know where you will go and practice it before the season starts.
* Follow the advice of your local officials – keep a battery-powered radio on hand and download the FEMA app.
* Have cash on hand – ATMs and credit card machines depend on electricity and a communications network and they could be knocked out.
* Have homeowner’s and flood insurance – make sure it’s up-to-date. Flood insurance is not part of your homeowner’s policy, so check out www.floodsmart.gov for insurance options.
“In 2017, Hurricane Harvey hit Texas,” Kaniewski said. “The average FEMA payout to those uninsured was $3,000. That is not going to make you whole. Insurance will make you whole.” 
Know How You Can be Impacted
Bell said that last year’s two hurricanes, Florence and Michael, showed how storms can impact an area differently.
“Florence hit the Carolinas, it weakened and stalled,” he said, “bringing a lot of rain and causing massive flooding. The damage was not along the coast, but inland.
“Michael, a Category 5 when it hit land, decimated everything in its path,” he noted. “People only had a short time to evacuate.
“You need to know how you and your family can be impacted and be prepared,” Bell stressed. 
Planned System Upgrades
The 2019 hurricane season marks the first time NOAA’s fleet of Earth-observing satellites includes three operational next-generation satellites. Unique and valuable data from these satellites feed the hurricane forecast models used by forecasters to help users make critical decisions days in advance.
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is making a planned upgrade to its Global Forecast System (GFS) flagship weather model, often called the American model, early in the 2019 hurricane season. This marks the first major upgrade to the dynamical core of the model in almost 40 years and will improve tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.
“NOAA is driving towards a community-based development program for future weather and climate modeling to deliver the very best forecasts, by leveraging new investments in research and working with the weather enterprise,” added Jacobs.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NWS office in San Juan, Puerto Rico will expand the coastal storm surge watches and warnings in 2019 to include Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
In addition, NHC will display excessive rainfall outlooks on its website, providing greater visibility of one of the most dangerous inland threats from hurricanes.
Also this season, NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft will collect higher-resolution data from upgraded onboard radar systems. These enhanced observations will be transmitted in near-real time to hurricane specialists at the NHC, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and forecasters at NWS Weather Forecast Offices.
To contact Karen Knight, email kknight@cmcherald.com.