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Monday, September 16, 2024

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Hermine Threat Drops to Tropical Storm

Latest forecast from NWS National Hurricane Center.

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COURT HOUSE – Cape May County remains under a tropical storm watch, according to National Weather Service in Philadelphia/Mt. Holly (NWS).
A tropical storm watch means sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots are possible due to a tropical storm within 48 hours.
According to NWS’ latest briefing as of 7 a.m. Sept. 2, “Hermine made landfall in Florida and is weakening. It has been downgraded to a tropical storm. A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts and for all of our coastal zones and lower Delaware Bay. There is a slight eastward movement of the track but not much change overall. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the track. Please continue to monitor this system as it moves north this weekend. Rainfall amounts have increased for southern and eastern areas, especially the Delmarva and southeastern New Jersey. These areas could now see 4 to 6 inches of rain from Hermine.”
Likely hazards, according to NWS:
Rip Currents: High Confidence. A moderate to high risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents will continue through at least Labor Day, and may continue into Tuesday. Beach goers should only enter the water if lifeguards are present. Most rip current deaths occur on beaches when and where no lifeguards are on duty. Beach erosion and high surf are also possible.
Tidal Flooding: High Confidence. Minor tidal flooding is likely beginning with the Saturday evening high tide cycle and continuing through the Sunday night high tide cycle, possibly continuing into Monday or Tuesday. Moderate tidal flooding is possible with the Sunday high tide cycles. Given multiple rounds of tidal flooding, water in the back bays will have a hard time draining between tidal cycles which could lead to prolonged flooding in these locations. Major tidal flooding could occur along some of the back bays. Additionally, there could be tidal flooding into the upper portions of Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River.
Strong Wind: Moderate confidence. There is a chance of tropical storm force wind (sustained wind of 39 mph or greater) for much of the region. The highest chance is along the Delaware beaches and the Southern New Jersey Shore Sunday into Sunday night. Even with an offshore track, gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected along the coast. Wind will be much less further inland.
Heavy rain: Moderate Confidence. There is expected to be a sharp cutoff in the heavy rain dependent on the track of Hermine. At this point, the highest risk of heavy rain in the Delmarva and South Jersey. The heaviest rain will fall from Saturday through Sunday. The primary flooding hazard will be street and flash flooding. The recent dry weather will lessen but not eliminate the risk of river and stream flooding.
View the latest briefing here.
NWS will release their next briefing at 5 p.m. Sept. 2. 

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