WASHINGTON – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters said conditions are more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity this season because El Nino has dissipated.
During a routine update Aug. 8, Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, noted the conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean are “more hospitable” to the formation of hurricanes, and climate models were also predicting a more active season.
He stressed the update was “a general guide to overall activity, not a predictor of how many would hit land.”
Bell also said that “it’s not only about the numbers, but it’s about being prepared” as the peak hurricane months are August-October. Two named storms have formed so far this year, with Hurricane Barry hitting Louisiana in July.
Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May). The likelihood of near-normal activity is at 35%, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%.
The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA expecting 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or greater), of which five to nine will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including two to four major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the two named storms so far.
Because 95% of all Atlantic hurricanes form between August-October, Bell said NOAA updates its predictions in August based on updated information on the ocean and atmospheric conditions.
“It’s too early, however, to predict how many will hit land because of changing weather patterns,” he added. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
Bell also asked reporters at a press conference “to spread the word” about being prepared for a storm.
“It only takes one storm,” he cautioned, “so you need to get ready now. Know your risk, have a plan and be ready to act.”
Helpful tips on preparing for hurricanes can be found at ready.gov.
To contact Karen Knight, email kknight@cmcherald.com.
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