Reopen or Bar Doors? Data Supports Both

COURT HOUSE – The COVID-19 data this week offers support for whatever position one wants to take on the progress of the pandemic.
For those who seek justification for stocking up and hunkering down, the infection rate that Gov. Phil Murphy spent weeks touting as one of the three major indicators of progress in the battle with the virus is up above one, meaning that each new case will likely infect at least one more individual, perpetuating the spread.
For those who want to argue the metrics are tracking well, the other two of Murphy’s three indicators – the rate of positive results as a percent of those tested and the number of new hospitalizations – remain low, according to daily briefings.
Numbers from the county Health Department bulletins show moderate increases in confirmed cases among county residents and the outbreaks in county long-term care facilities stabilized.
Worried? Those same daily bulletins show an alarming trend in confirmed cases among out-of-county teenagers and twentysomethings.
The week from June 30 to July 6 saw 38 new county resident cases, slightly higher than the trend of 4.5 per day that characterized the numbers in earlier weeks, but within a reasonable distance of those earlier numbers. That same week, however, produced 92 confirmed new cases among out-of-county residents, giving a combined new case number of 130 positive tests reported in one week.
As Middle Township Mayor Timothy Donohue noted in remarks at Middle Township Committee’s meeting July 6, the increases are coming at a point when the population in the county swelled four or five times its permanent resident level – more people, more cases.  
Cape May County began the past week with 755 total cases among county residents, 93 of which were still active. By the end of the week, the case total was 788, with 125 cases active. That is without counting the 92 out-of-county cases.
One piece of good news is that the county knows about the spike in out-of-county cases among young visitors. Contact tracing is working.
Contact tracers identified potentially exposed partygoers based on individual known cases. The county’s three urgent care facilities methodically tested large numbers of young visitors based on contact tracing.
The governor had his worries, as well, this week. While most of the newly authorized reopenings went forward, Murphy pulled back on allowing indoor dining to resume.
Hints during his July 6 briefing suggested he may pause at this point, looking to get the infection rate back below one and allow time for the state Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control (ABC) to convince a few reluctant bar owners to do more concerning compliance with social distancing provisions. According to Donohue, the ABC visited some local bars this weekend (July 4-5).
The picture outside the state grew more concerning this week. Outbreaks in several states are producing record new case totals almost daily. From Texas comes word of a growing number of young people being admitted to overburdened hospitals. As one doctor noted, the young will probably survive the disease, but they may find themselves with very nasty hospital bills.
The tendency to view ultimate death as the only arbiter of how serious the consequences are of a COVID-19 infection continues to get play in the media. Many whose profile does not predict a lethal bout with the virus act as though the pandemic is an inconvenience rather than a threat.
State Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli announced a set of numbers that present another worry.
The state is seeing a continued increase in cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). The mysterious inflammatory syndrome was first noted, in Britain, in April. MIS-C is linked to COVID-19 infection. It strikes children, with the most common occurrences in the U.S. being among 1- to 4-year-olds, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It is serious, it may have lasting effects even if survived, and it has been fatal for some. The occurrence is rare, but Persichilli said New Jersey experienced 51 cases so far.
Perhaps the 18- to 22-year-old who has, so far, prioritized partying above the threat they may become to grandma will think again about the possible threat to a younger brother or sister.
COVID Act Now, a highly respected non-profit grouping of health care experts, reported this week that its model no longer places New Jersey in the tier of states “on track to contain COVID.” Instead, the Garden State dropped one notch in the model’s rankings to a state with “controlled disease growth.” The reason was the rising infection rate in the state, which officials largely attributed to travelers from “hotspots” across the county.
Continue to support the reopening or bar the doors. There is data to support it.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.