NJ Leads Outbound Moving Survey While Population Grows

COURT HOUSE – This month, United Van Lines published its 44th Annual National Migration Study, using the national moving company’s data to show how many people are moving inbound or outbound from each state. 
It is a limited data set, which can provide only a slanted view of the process of state-to-state migration. It is one company’s data, and it is biased in favor of those who can afford a mover. 
For all its limitations, the data is suggestive and eagerly consumed each year.
New Jersey, for thethird consecutive year, is the state with the highest outbound percentage. 
For 2020, 68.5% of the New Jersey interstate moves tracked in the study were outbound, leaving a scant 31.5% as inbound.
The study provides a limited analysis of who is moving, and why. One in three of those moving outbound are doing so because of retirement. Only 7% of those moving into the state cite retirement as the reason. At least for this subset of individuals, retirement is something best done elsewhere. 
The leading reason for moving into the state is a job. Over 40% cite work as their reason for migrating into New Jersey. 
The data show that those coming into the state are younger than those moving out, which fits with work drawing people in and retirement influencing their leaving. Even if over 40% of those coming say a job is the leading reason, that is 40% of a smaller pool. By a substantial margin, more people leave than come, according to the data.
The conundrum comes from the fact that the official 2020 decennial census numbers show New Jersey grew by 5.7% since 2010. With no evidence that this is due to a marked uptick in the state birth rate, more people came than left. 
Only four of the state’s 21 counties lost population in the last decade. Cape May County was one of the four, with a decline of 2.1%. 
If more of the moving company’s customers were moving out, who was moving in? The census data are not yet complete, but other data suggestone part of the answer.
The American Immigration Council (AIC) says that nearly one in four individuals in the state were born in another country. That is supported by information from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) that shows New Jersey, in 2019, with 23.4% of the population foreign-born.
The data show that the leading nation sending immigrants to New Jersey is not south of the Rio Grande, but, rather, south of the Himalayas. India is the top nation of origin for immigrants to the Garden State.
AIC says that 59% of the state’s immigrants naturalized by 2018. AIC also says that 5% of the total population of New Jersey, in 2018, was comprised of undocumented immigrants.
By themselves, the various sources are not definitive, but they are suggestive. 
According to the MPI, in 1990, New Jersey had 12.5% of its population foreign-born. 
Immigration has been one of the growth engines of the Garden State’s population. It represents a population that would not be much seen in the United Van Lines data.
The next months will provide more detailed 2020 census data, but the conundrum is less mysterious.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.