‘The Road Back’ Introduced as County’s Cases Rise 37%

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COURT HOUSE – April 27: After a week where the growth rate in the county’s COVID-19 cases slowed, a spike in the past week has brought the case total to 302, a growth of 37%. 
Although the number of individuals who have recovered sufficiently to be moved off quarantine has also increased, the rise in new cases drove the active case numbers up by a third, leaving the county with 190 active cases.
The numbers also leave some county residents with justified anxiety concerning plans for a gradual reopening after over a month of near lockdown conditions.
The growth rate of cases in the state has slowed, and hospitalizations in the past week declined for six consecutive days. Gov. Phil Murphy has produced a six-point plan to gradually ease lockdown restrictions, a plan he calls “The Road Back.”
The plan gives no specific dates, but it calls for tying any reopening to a sustained reduction in cases, expanded testing and contact tracing capacity, safe isolation support, and preparation for the possibility of a resurgence. 
Murphy calls for a “methodical and strategic return to work based on the level of disease transmission risk.” Locally, this may translate into a public need for improved insights into the causes of spikes, like the one the county experienced this week. Unfortunately, the aggregate data provided in the county’s daily reports provide insights only into the growth in raw numbers.
The county could be seeing more cases as a result of more robust testing, but data is not publicly available.
The data also does not illustrate how much of the trend in cases follows an outbreak at a long-term care facility. What is known is that earlier spikes were heavily tied to the outbreak at Victoria Manor, in Lower Township. State reports show 54 cases and 14 deaths linked to that facility.
 That same state data also indicate that the facility is not continuing to produce numbers of new cases. As a result, the active case report for Lower Township has stabilized.
The spike in numbers for the county in the last week was heavily focused in Woodbine and Dennis Township. In one week, Woodbine’s confirmed cases rose from two to 21. In that same week, Dennis Township’s went from 12 to 30. 
State data show Autumn Lake Healthcare at Oceanview with 22 active cases, an increase of 17 in the past week.  The same data does not show a similar one-week growth in a long-term care facility in Woodbine, which might otherwise have explained the spike in new cases in the borough.
The daily county report no longer provides information on long-term care facilities. The ability to link data from the county and state sources runs into difficulties of timing and potential lags in state reporting.
Why did we see a 37% growth in total cases in one week? Is the spike a threat to plans for a gradual reopening of the shore’s critical summer economy? Are there explanations for the sudden increase that are less alarming than the raw numbers would suggest?
As economic hardship piles atop public safety concerns, more comprehensive data may be critical to helping citizens understand where we are and have some sense of confidence in where we could go.
In the end, the confidence level of the county’s residents may be essential to the success of any planned return to economic activity.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.
ED. NOTE: See the Herald website for daily COVID-19 updates and related coverage.