Delta Variant Helps Covid Make a Comeback

COURT HOUSE – The delta variant has resurfaced the Covid challenge, even in the warm summer days. 
The pandemic receded into the background in locations with reasonably high vaccination rates, changing as the alpha variant, first identified in Kent, England, gave way to delta, the more contagious variant first identified in India, in October 2020.
Two weeks ago, the July 16 Cape May County Health Department release showed 28 total active Covid cases, an average rate of three new cases per day, and zero cases in long-term care facilities. 
The July 30 release shows 177 resident active cases, a per-day new case rate of 22, and 16 active cases in long-term care locations.
What’s different? At the beginning of May, the New Jersey Covid Variant Surveillance Report showed the most dominant virus strain over the previous four weeks was alpha. Sequencing data from the previous four weeks put delta at 1% of cases. 
On July 10, the most recent surveillance report available, delta accounted for 75% of the variants sequenced in the previous four weeks. Alpha was down to 10%, its leadership position gone.
Nationally, health officials have laid much of the blame for the new surge in cases, which in some states is at levels not seen since the peak days of the pandemic, at the feet of the unvaccinated. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky termed it the “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”
Following a super-spreader event in Cape Cod for Independence Day, the CDC also highlighted data that shows that even fully vaccinated individuals can become infected with the delta variant and efficiently spread the disease. 
New CDC guidance suggests that even the fully vaccinated should return to mask-wearing in public indoor spaces in communities where the infection rate is on the rise, and especially in communities where the vaccination rate is low.
Has the vaccine failed? No. Most health officials are satisfied with the vaccines’ performance at keeping infections mild and preventing high rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Even in the face of aggressive variants, the vaccines have significantly lowered the risk of clinical Covid. 
Where delta has made its inroad is that it can infect the vaccinated, using those who may be asymptomatic, to spreadthe virus back into the community.
After a big runup in April, the rate at which Cape May County is adding fully vaccinated residents slowed considerably. In July, the number of fully vaccinated residents grew by only 3%.
The county has 53,875 residents fully vaccinated, or 65% of county residents 12 and older, which is a major contributor to the county’s ability to return to relatively normal activity. 
Yet, the delta variant is as prevalent in the state’s southern region as it is in the north. Cases are rising on an average of over 20 new cases per day for the last week. The most significant worry for health officials is that with delta rapidly spreading, the virus retains its ability to mutate and create new variants, potentially ones that evade vaccine immunity.
The CDC is arguing that people may need to return to masking and social distancing, as a way of compensating for lower-than-desired vaccination rates. The new guidance on masks for indoor public places in communities with rising contagion rates is evidence of that concern, as is the emerging guidance that teachers, staff and students return to in-person instruction in the fall fully masked, regardless of vaccine status. The American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association endorsed this new guidance.
Gov. Phil Murphy reacted to the new CDC guidance regarding masks in schools by leaving in place his policy announced in June that leaves the decision to local school districts. With over 600 school districts spread across 566 municipalities, a great deal of local variation is possible. 
In Cape May County, there are 16 operating K-12 public school districts, two of which are for county schools.
The added problem is that debates on health issues have also become divisive political exchanges. Over 600 colleges and universities across the nation published vaccination requirements. 
In New Jersey, Rutgers University was one of the nation’s first institutions to announce such a mandate. Fifteen states with Republican governors and a November electorate that gave a majority to Donald Trump do not have one college with a vaccination mandate. In blue New Jersey, the opposite is true.
Almost every four-year New Jersey college or universityis requiring students to be fully vaccinated for the fall. The two exceptions, as of July 31, are Rowan and Monmouth universities, although Rowan requires students who will live on campus to be fully vaccinated. The state’s 19 community colleges have not imposed a vaccine mandate.
An internal CDC presentation deck (https://bit.ly/2VivFTX) was leaked to the public. It states, “The war has changed.” Calling the delta variant as contagious as chickenpox, the presentation cites statistics that show fully vaccinated individuals have an eight-fold reduction in disease incidence over the unvaccinated and a 25-fold reduction in hospitalization incidence and death. 
The risk is real, even for the vaccinated, but at dramatically lower rates, especially for severe outcomes.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.