Symposium: Prepare for Climate Change Now

CAPE MAY – According to Dr. Thomas Herrington, associate director, Urban Coast Institute at Monmouth University, sea level rise combined with increasing problematic meteorological events means climate change’s impact on New Jersey’s coast is coming sooner than what might be expected.
Herrington was one of the speakers at a symposium organized by Rutgers University Environmental Stewards and sponsored by the City of Cape May.
A panel of speakers spoke Nov. 6 on the topic of a scientific approach to global warming and climate change.
The presentations offered a corrective to the almost two-year focus on the pandemic, as the speakers warned that climate change is an existential threat that cannot be ignored.
Herrington, an oceanographer, discussed the science of sea level rise and climate change. The other academic member of the panel was Dr. Rouzbeh Nazari, who holds a dual appointment in the Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, as well as the School of Public Health, at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Nazari brought the insights of an engineer to a discussion of resiliency challenges and building for climate change.
The panel’s final speaker was Pam Mount, former Lawrence Township mayor and founder of Sustainable New Jersey. Mount spoke on initiatives at the local level that she said are necessary to minimize the worst impacts of climate change.
Herrington told a familiar story of rising levels of greenhouse gases trapping long-wave radiant heat that otherwise would exit the atmosphere. He spoke of higher levels of atmospheric water vapor accumulating as average temperatures continue to rise.
Nazari later said that a 1% increase in atmospheric temperature means the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapor. Herrington explained the climate modeling that leads to the predictions of future changes based on emission level pathways.
Herrington did more than tell the scientific story of climate change; he told it with urgency and with a specific eye on New Jersey’s coastline. Herrington’s slides showed that New Jersey is warming faster than the pace of global warming, faster even than the rest of the Northeastern U.S.
Changes in the global melting of the ice sheets and glaciers are adding momentum to the subsidence of the coastal New Jersey landmass. Melting ice is simultaneously contributing to sea level rise, along with the thermal expansion of the seas caused by warming temperatures.
For 2050, Herrington said the damage has been done.
“There is no way to stop it,” he said.
Changes to emission pathways, how much more of the greenhouse gases people contribute to the atmosphere, will impact climate change 70 to 100 years out, but it is too late in the game for those emission changes to alter what happens in 2050, he said
Herrington also added that frequent damaging meteorological events will compound the local problems of sea level rise in New Jersey. His presentation urged the protection of marshes and forests and holds out hope that research will successfully find ways to increase the ability of the oceans to “bury” carbon dioxide.
The bottom line in the analysis was the fact that coastal New Jersey will continue to experience dangerous changes in climate and sea level rise. Preparing for it is essential.
Nazari’s presentation showed how unprepared people are. He stressed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, especially along the New Jersey coast. He spoke of low elevations, proximity to large bodies of water, public facilities at flood levels, deterioration of preventative measures, and the need for better evacuation planning.
Nazari pointed to endless development providing fewer avenues for stormwater. He said that even low-level storms can have a devastating impact because of the exposure of critical infrastructure.
When cost is often the barrier to appropriate preparation for sea level rise and storm-induced flooding, Nazari pointed to a recent study by the National Institute of Building Sciences that showed that $1 spent on hazard mitigation saves the nation $9 in future disaster costs.
Nazari spoke of the many variables that contribute to “total water level,” including storm surges, tides, wave runup, sea level rise, and precipitation levels. These variables are not properly captured in macro plans. He urged the development of local plans based on local vulnerabilities.
Resilience, Nazari said, is best seen as preparing for, withstanding, recovering from, and adapting to external shocks. The three results of resilience are more reliability, faster recovery, and lower total consequences. Resilience is not the prevention of external shock.
“Most people do not know the real vulnerability associated with their property,” Nazari said more than once. He spoke of local-level property risk reports that capture future hazard risks at the level of individual properties.
Pointing to the crisp autumn day outside of Cape May’s Convention Hall, Nazari said, “The time to plan is when the sky is blue.”
Pam Mount echoed the need for local planning and increased resiliency. Mount helped to start Sustainable New Jersey, whose municipal certification program now has 81% of the state’s municipalities participating, with 224 certified. Mount recounted the early history of the Sustainable New Jersey program.
According to the Sustainable New Jersey website, in Cape May County, all the 16 municipalities but one, Wildwood, are registered as participating, 11 have been certified, with two, Ocean City and Cape May, recipients of the highest silver level certification. Four municipalities are in the program, but have yet to be certified – West Wildwood, Wildwood Crest, Dennis Township, and Lower Township.
One clear message from the day was that climate change is real, its impacts have already begun, and we are already behind in our efforts to plan for it and adapt to it.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.