COVID-19 Goes to the Beach in July

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COURT HOUSE – So far, in July, COVID-19 left the mainland’s long-term care facilities, and went to the party at the beach. In so doing, however, the disease racked up several new cases among residents, as well as non-residents.
This month saw a higher number of new resident cases than the month of June. Also, counting non-resident cases – out-of-county visitors who have tested positive while here – the unfinished month of July added more cases to the total than any previous month, including April.
Several things are different. The influx of people that accompanies the heart of the summer means there is a larger population where the virus can find new hosts. While that is true and it’s heard often, as a reason for growing numbers, the real question is whether that explanation offers much comfort. For some, the fact that this past week saw a combined 110 new confirmed cases is troubling, regardless of the size of the population.
The other big difference in the current numbers is the shift in demographic. The population being exploited by the virus is young and mostly healthy individuals who, for the most part, but with no guarantees, will survive the initial infection, with minimal difficulty. Putting aside, for the moment, the mounting evidence of long-term effects, even in some people who had mild symptoms of COVID-19 infection, the issue that might spring to mind is one of transmission from the healthy to the compromised.
In one week, Avalon jumped almost 40% in the number of active cases, counting resident and non-resident numbers, according to the county’s daily reports.
This is far from just a phenomenon involving non-resident young people. That is clearly where it started, but this week, the weight of the numbers shifted.
The county reports for each day, from July 14 to July 20, show a cumulative total of 110 new cases, 62 of which are among county residents and 48 are non-residents. A lot of people mean a lot of comingling and the virus doesn’t check for the home county.
In Stone Harbor, a resort town that went for months with one case of COVID-19, saw 23 active cases July 20, 19 of which were out-of-county individuals. The exact opposite was occurring across the causeway.
In Middle Township, there were 17 active cases among residents July 14 and two among non-residents. By July 20, there were no new cases of non-resident infection, but the resident active cases doubled from 17 to 35. Who is spreading what to whom is debatable, but it is not that the new cases are all confined to party-loving visitors ignoring protocols.
It should be noted that the growth of cases among residents can no longer be placed at the doorstep of the long-term care facilities. In the past week, only one of the 62 new cases among residents was associated with a long-term care facility.
One argument heard is that the new cases are in a demographic that will not be a burden on the medical system. What is also heard is that part of the reason for the flare-up is that a number of younger people disdain the health protocols, partly because the odds are with them should they contract the virus.
The part that might concern some is that the county is depending upon the vigilance of these same carefree partygoers to shift gears and characters when it comes to avoiding circumstances where they might pass the virus to those less likely to have an easy go with an infection.
One of the things that appear to be preventing the numbers from jumping from one demographic group to another is the job being done by the county Health Department in contact tracing and subsequent testing, a laudable effort that is doable until the numbers grow too large.
In one sense, combining the resident and non-resident numbers can be deceiving. Not all of the active non-resident cases are quarantining in the county. In another sense, the combined numbers show the lurking presence of the virus.
The rising numbers of resident cases also show that a lack of vigilance and disrespect for health protocols may not be limited to out-of-county individuals.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.