CMCo Sees Increased Diversity, Population Changes in Census Numbers

COURT HOUSE – Despite much data from the 2020 census being unavailable, what’s accessible tells some interesting stories.
Cape May County was one of four New Jersey countiesshowing a population decline, but that decline was considerably less than expected. Still on the web is a state Department of Labor estimate for the county’s 2020 population, at 91,546. 
Instead, the county came in at 95,263 in the official census tally, down 2.1% from its 2010 count.
The ability to maintain a relatively stable population from one census to the other was almost exclusively accomplished because of growth in Middle Township, which grew from 18,911, in 2010, to 20,380, in 2020, an increase of almost 8%. 
Without Middle Township, the county’s decline in population would have more than doubled, from 2.1% to 4.4%.
Nation and State
The national takeaways from the census made for big headlines. Those self-identifying as White, non-Hispanic declined for the first time. While this group still represents the largest racial group in the population, its proportional share of the whole declined, from 63.7% to 57.8%. 
A big part of that shift was the rise in multiracial identities. Individuals identifying as being of two or more races tripled since 2010.
Other takeaways were that larger metro areas grew at the expense of smaller, more rural metro areas. While that trend was being recorded, the pandemic was driving people in the opposite direction.
The nation aged, with a decline in the percentage of the population 18 years old or less. Both Asian and Hispanic groups saw significant increases, with those identified as Asian rising by over a third and the Hispanic/Latino population reaching 19% of the nation’s population.
In New Jersey, the same dynamics occurred. The population grew, but less than the national average. While the nation’s population increased by 7.4%, New Jersey saw 5.7% growth. That level of growth was still good in the Northeast sector, where it beat all neighboring states, except Delaware, which grew 10%. New Jersey also became more diverse, with immigrant populations helping to fuel the overall growth rate.
Cape May County
Increases in diversity played a big role in the county’s numbers. Individuals self-identifying as White, non-Hispanic declined by 5.3%. Those who identified as Hispanic or Latino increased by 23.3%. 
The county experienced a 22% decrease in its Black population, down by almost 1,000 since 2010. The diversity gains also took an unexpected form, when those who identify as being of two or more races increased by over 200%, from 1,857, in 2010, to 5,675, in 2020.
Essentially, the county’s 20-year decline in population slowed. It did so, in part, through an increase in diversity.
USA Today developed a diversity index used in many population comparisons. It is designed to indicate the chance that two people randomly selected from an area would have a different race or ethnicity.
According to that index, Cape May County moved from a 25 score to a 33 score in the last decade, meaning that two people from the county had a one in four chance of meeting and being of a different race/ethnicity, in 2010. They now have a one in three chance.
Municipalities
A lot has been made of the 23.3% decline in the permanent resident population of Cape May since the last census. It is true, but it shouldn’t be surprising. The trend that played out in Cape May since 2010 occurred earlier in other county resorts. The reason is likely the same phenomenon.
Since the county’s peak population, in 2000, the county’s island communities have seen an increased conversion of the residential housing base to second homes or vacation homes, often rented as investments.
Since 2000, the city has seen a decline in permanent population of 31%, which is in line with a 20-year period in which Avalon’s permanent population declined by 42%, Sea Isle City by 26%, and Stone Harbor by 29%.
In each census, the same tale is seen. The island communities are losing population, and the mainland is seeing some gain, allowing the county’s population loss to be moderated.
If one considers the mainland to be Dennis, Middle, Lower and Upper townships, along with Woodbine, there was almost no change in population from 2010 to 2020. The five municipalities increased by a combined 300 people.
If the other 11 municipalities are considered the resorts or island communities, the loss in population was 6.7% across them all. Comparing 2020 to 2000 shows an even bigger drop in the resorts, which declined by 23.5%, while the mainland grew by 4.5%.
When considering the slight 2.1% loss this year in total county population, one should consider that the shifts are not uniform. Middle Township grew by almost 1,500 people in this census round, while its total growth since the peak 2000 census is nearly 4000 individuals. Over that same 20-year period, Ocean City lost almost 5,000 individuals, a trend that moderated in this last census period, where Ocean City declined by 500.
The county in the last two census periods lost a combined 7,063 people. The island communities lost 9,779 in that period, while the mainland gained 2,716.
What happened to Cape May in this census cycle is part of a shift of permanent population away from the islands.
Diversity
Diversity also plays its part in the municipal numbers. Part of the way Middle Township grew since the last census was through increased diversity. Those residents self-identifying as Hispanic or Latino moved from 612, in 2010, to 1,219, in 2020. Those identifying as two or more races also increased, from 205 to 773. Bucking the overall trend, the municipality also grew its White population by 676.
The only category in which Middle showed a decline was in its Black population, which moved from 1,457, in 2010, to 1,293, in 2020, a decline of 16%. The county’s Black population declined by 22%.
Across the county, the diversity index increased in 13 of the 16 county municipalities, the exceptions being Cape May Point, Stone Harbor, and West Cape May.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.