COURT HOUSE – September was kinder to Cape May County than August. Throughout August, the county reported over 300 new Covid cases per week, an average of over 40 per day. For much of that month, the active cases in the county remained above 500.
September witnessed a slow decline in the reported caseload. This past week (Sept. 18-24), the county reported 233 new cases, down over 100 per week from the same figures at the end of August. The active case number was 462, which may not be the active caseload health officials would like to see, but at the beginning of September, August left the county with 567 active cases.
The one area not showing improvement is Covid-related fatalities. The month of September averaged 3.5 deaths per week.
Vaccinations
The number of county residents who are fully vaccinated continues to slowly climb. The potential pool of eligible individuals for the vaccine also expandedto those 12 and older. The county reported that 64% of its resident population is fully vaccinated.
The vaccination policy was an area of confusion this month. Word from various government sources had everyone eligible for a third shot – a booster dose. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) panels made more restricted recommendations. The month saw the CDC chief overrule her panel and made frontline health care workers, teachers and others eligible.
Currently, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was approved for booster shots for those over 65, those with medical conditions that would compromise their ability to fight off a Covid infection, and select frontline workers. The booster shots are already available and being given in Cape May County.
The expectation is that Moderna and Johnson & Johnson approvals will follow in a matter of weeks.
Models Predict Decline in Covid Cases Through March 2022
The push to get booster shots in the arms of the fully vaccinated comes as computer models predict a decline in Covid infections.
According to the Covid Scenario Modeling HUB, a consortium of researchers who advise the CDC, efforts to synthesize the results of over 30 models, along with the definition of scenario characteristics and assumptions, have led to a “likely scenario” where Covid cases decline significantly over the next six months.
What are the scenario assumptions?
The researchers developed four scenarios built around two major variables – whether child vaccinations briskly proceed and whether a new super-contagious variant emerges. They feel the most likely scenario is that large numbers of children will get vaccinated and that no new variant will emerge.
Based on those assumptions, the mathematical model predicts that new cases of infection will slowly decline, reaching a national level of about 9,000 cases per day by March. That would be quite a drop from the current average of about 125,000 cases per day.
Where’s Cape May County on those two big assumptions?
County-level vaccination data on those below 18 is not available, but state data is available.
According to the state Department of Health, about 59% of 12 to 17-year-olds received at least one shot of the vaccine. The likely scenario prediction assumes the state and the nation will increase those percentages rapidly over the fall.
The growing level of immunity, which health officials are trying hard to increase, is seen as the major protection against the intrusion of a new variant.
Schools
The New Jersey Covid dashboard may not be the most useful source for a sense of what school systems may be dealing with, as they seek to implement full-time in-person instruction.
Cape May County has 13 operating municipal public school districts, as well as the county Technical School District. Of those 14 entities, seven make it easy for the public to see how many confirmed Covid cases they have.
These local dashboards updated on school websites give much more insight into the impact Covid may be having in specific county schools than does the state dashboard with its complex definition of what constitutes a school outbreak or what is required to prove in-school transmission.
A question many members of the public want answered is about Covid’s presence in the schools, no matter how it got there.
According to the state dashboard, Cape May County had one school outbreak involving three individuals since schools went into session after Labor Day. The cumulative picture from the available school dashboards shows six school districts with Covid cases involving 88 students.
One approach is not right while the other is wrong, but the state is using such a restrictive definition that a glance at its dashboard for school infections gives a picture that bears little reality to what the schools are experiencing.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.
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