The highly respected major storm forecasting group at Colorado State University has revised its April 3 forecast for the 2025 hurricane season. On July 9, the forecast team reduced its prediction of named storms from 17 to 16 and its projection of a major hurricane, level 3 or above, from four to three.
That is not a big change, but it is welcome news to many who hoped to avoid any increase in the projected number of named storms. The average hurricane season has 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major. The forecast is moving in the direction of a slightly greater than normal season, as opposed to 2024, which was a record-breaking season with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
The new forecast, which CSU maintains is more reliable, comes as the peak of the storm season approaches, from mid-August through September.
CSU’s models call for a 48% probability of a major Atlantic hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2025. The average probability is 43%. The models also predict that any landfall in the U.S. would have a greater probability of hitting along the Gulf Coast, a 31% probability, than the East Coast, with a 25% probability.
CSU will update its forecast again on Aug. 6.
