Sunday, December 15, 2024

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In Search of Another Choice

By Preston Gibson

With the two major political parties offering highly unpopular candidates for president, many people are at a loss about how to cast their vote. In this space last week, Publisher Art Hall, suggested voting for the party (not the candidate) which best reflects your views on issues of greatest concern to you – Democrat or Republican.  But this may still mean casting a vote for a candidate you don’t like.  This week, at Art’s invitation, I’ll share another option: voting for a third party candidate.
Generally, a vote for a third party candidate has no effect on the outcome of a presidential election.  In some cases, votes for a third party candidate serve to create a split on one end or the other of the political spectrum – Independent candidate, H. Ross Perot, (with 19 percent of the more conservative vote) is generally blamed for Republican George H. W. Bush’s loss to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992.
On the other end of the spectrum, some blame Green Party candidate, Ralph Nader (with 3 percent of the more liberal vote) for Democrat Al Gore’s loss to Republican George W. Bush in 2000. 
While a third party candidate may influence the outcome of an election, a third party candidate has little chance of winning, but it IS possible.  The extraordinary UNpopularity of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton increases this possibility.  How?
It remains highly unlikely for a third party candidate to win the general election because winning the general election requires securing a majority of Electoral College votes. (If you’re unfamiliar with the electoral college, look it up.)  However, it is very significant that Clinton and Trump are each polling appreciably less than 50 percent. 
What happens if neither Clinton nor Trump get at least 50 percent of the vote?  The answer rests in the 12th Amendment to our Constitution (see excerpt printed nearby), which serves to ensure our president is elected by a true majority. (This may sound a bit familiar to fans of the hit musical Hamilton, as the controversial election of 1800 was a catalyst for the 12th Amendment.) 
In a nutshell, if no candidate for president receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270), the House of Representatives will elect the president. 
The House is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes.  Each state delegation votes en bloc – each state having a single vote; so, there are 50 votes. 
A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (i.e., at present, a minimum of 26 votes) for that candidate to become the president-elect. 
Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it yields a majority and elects a president.
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans presently hold a 57 percent majority by membership, and 66 percent of the 50 state delegations have a majority of Republican members.  So, we might presume the House would elect the GOP candidate, except a large number of Republican legislators, don’t like Trump at all; of course, they don’t like Clinton either. 
Might House Republicans vote for a former Republican governor instead of Trump?  Might House Democrats cede their votes to a more centrist third party candidate if doing so would block Trump?
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, is a former Republican governor of New Mexico.  On the ballot in all 50 states and running third in national polls, Johnson appears to be the candidate most likely to place third in the general election.  (Johnson’s running mate, Bill Weld, is also a former Republican governor (of Massachusetts).
Johnson is not your garden-variety Republican unless you’d like to have marijuana legally growing in your garden.  But, he’s very much about less government and more freedom.   
As a fiscal conservative, social liberal, anti-establishment candidate, Johnson is pulling support from both disaffected Democrats (e.g., those who were “feeling the Bern”) and disaffected (“never Trump”) Republicans.
For those with more liberal leanings, Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, might present a better third-party option, but she’s presently on the ballot in only about half the states, and she’s not (yet) on New Jersey’s ballot.
This election has many voters searching for an alternative to Trump or Clinton.  For very good reasons, our Constitution expressly provides for a third option.  It’s worth considering.
Excerpt of the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution:
The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. – U.S. Constitution, Amendment XII
ED. NOTE: Preston Gibson is director of development at the Cape May County Herald.

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