As outlined in the introductory piece March 3, the Herald will endeavor to provide a layman’s digest of climate change issues that Cape May County faces (https://bit.ly/3fUkFnH). We are doing this, given the potential disproportionate impact climate change may have upon us here at the ocean’s edge.
For our part, we have established that global warming is real and caused by man (https://bit.ly/3mw7BpS) and examined what could happen globally (https://bit.ly/2RbCcNQ) if no effort is made to reverse course.
Now, we will make it our goal to increase our understanding of what could change locally, in a county with an economy built on its natural resources, if our planet were to continue on this same trajectory.
The product of climate change with the biggest threat to Cape May County is sea level rise, and it doesn’t take an expert to understand why – we are surrounded by oceans and bays. As the sea level rises, it impacts our way of life.
Sea level rise directly impacts beaches, wetlands, which puts ecosystems in danger and increases storm-surge risks, and flood risks for homes, cars, businesses, and other infrastructure.
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Because we are surrounded by the ocean and
bays, sea level rise impacts our way of life.
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A 2021 study published in the science journal Nature Communications, in March, looked at factors contributing to sea level rise at various locations on the East Coast and found South Jersey experienced the highest overall rate (https://go.nature.com/3cZXtm3). The study also found that from 1900-2000, the sea rose twice as much as it did in prior eras.
A 2019 study, published by Rutgers University, and commissioned by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), which was authored by some of the same scientists as the report published in Nature Communications, found that in the last 40 years, along New Jersey’s coast, sea levels rose close to twice the global average – 8.2 inches here compared to 4.3 inches average internationally (https://bit.ly/3uzWBdR).
The study concludes from 1911 to 2019, there has been a 17.6-inch sea level rise along the Jersey coast, compared to a 7.2-inch global average in that same timeframe.
Some of this is attributed to the state sinking, due to groundwater withdrawal and glacial isotonic adjustment, Earth’s ongoing response to the melting of great ice sheets, which create a seesaw effect where the land rises in areas that had been covered in ice, but melts in the mid-Atlantic, according to a separate Rutgers fact sheet (https://bit.ly/3cYgR2V).
The 2019 Rutgers study also makes predictions for what the future of sea level rise will look like off New Jersey’s coast, and some of the results are bleak.
Researchers used a “moderate emissions” scenario, which made its projections based on global policies set in 2019 being maintained. Under that scenario, the sea would rise between 2 and 5.2 feet by 2100 in our region.
The Rutgers study received some pushback from the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, as well as others. That organization’s Vice President of Government Affairs, Raymond Cantor, testified in front of the Assembly Special Committee on Infrastructure and Natural Resources and was skeptical of Rutgers’ scientists’ methodology (https://bit.ly/39XmA7f).
“Overreliance on this one report could lead to premature decisions related to coastal adaptation that are unnecessarily expensive and disruptive,” Cantor said, urging that decisions should be made by the Legislature, not regulators, like the DEP. He acknowledges that the climate is changing, and anthropogenic causes are a significant factor.
Cantor said the Rutgers report is flawed, not peer-reviewed, not reflective of general scientific consensus, and overestimates sea level rise.
Still, the Rutgers projections are the most credible specific to New Jersey currently published. It is transparent in allowing that the high range, over 5 feet in sea level rise by 2100, maintaining current standards, is an unlikely scenario.
While consensus does not exist about the future projections, the bottom line is this: The sea level is rising, is continuing to rise at an increased rate, and this is having a more significant effect on New Jersey.
This creates a conundrum for local regulators, legislators, engineers, and others when building near the coast. There are three main areas in which major investments into infrastructure are being made, which must consider future sea level rise projections.
Along our county’s back bays, many towns have changed, or are in the process of changing, local ordinances to require bayfront property owners to raise their bulkheads.
This is an expensive process, deemed necessary by an increase in flooding, but it may not be cost-effective to do every 20 or 40 years.
In fact, Rutgers’ study suggests high-end estimates should be used for decisions around highly consequential assets.
More towns are currently adding pump stations and raising roads. On Five Mile Island alone, three pump stations will be added within five years.
A pump station was finished last year, at Rio Grande Avenue, which coincided with a road-raising project. Another major flood mitigation project is underway downtown, which will add a second pump station that is expected to be operational this year. A third pump station on the north end of the island is in the works.
Those familiar with Cape May County are no stranger to beach replenishment efforts, which are constantly ongoing. These expensive projects are largely funded by the federal and state governments, at a significant expense.
Towns, like Avalon and North Wildwood, are often spending their budgets to try to truck sand from healthier beaches to more devastated areas. This has already contributed to an increase in taxes in North Wildwood.
A rising sea will create a need for more frequent beach nourishment efforts with increased scope. At some point, a decision may be made that it is no longer feasible or practical to continue pumping sand to create a beach year after year.
Perhaps then, on certain beaches, the focus may shift to a more permanent solution, like sea walls or bulkheads along the oceanfront, eliminating some sandy beaches in the county.
Climate change also has an impact on coastal storms. While Rutgers research concedes that further research is needed to understand region-specific changes, more rain and wind will accompany future storms globally, and sea level rise will worsen their impacts.
What we have learned to this point is that, by the end of the century, based upon current studies, we may well need to adjust our bulkheads, beachfront, roads, and building elevations to accommodate an ocean 2 to 5 feet higher than its current level.
Low-lying beaches, roads, and buildings will require a greater expenditure of planning effort and resources than the rest of the county.
In a subsequent article, we will seek to identify these low-lying areas. Doing so will motivate people in these areas to bring political pressure to ensure that what is necessary to be done is, in fact, being done.
All of this presupposes that man’s efforts to mitigate climate change will have an insufficient impact to slow or stop the sea rise; we will study that, but we haven’t studied it yet.
The good news is that our county already studies potential threats of this nature, but much more focused work will need to be done.
From the Bible: Jesus Christ is the same yesterday and today and forever. (Hebrews 13:8)
“A Layman’s Digest of Climate Change and its Cape May County Impact” is an ongoing collaboration between Correspondent Shay Roddy and Publisher Art Hall, focused on taking a broad-based look at climate change and mankind’s efforts to mitigate it, both of which have major implications for our county.
It is the authors’ objective to do all they can to understand this issue and present it to the reader in succinct, readable installments. Responses are welcome in the form of letters to the editor or anonymously via a Spout Off submission, both of which will be considered for publication.
Prior Article Index:
Article 1 – An Introduction to a Series: https://bit.ly/30BRihl
Article 2 – A Layman’s Understanding of Climate Change: http://bit.ly/3caNLgw
Article 3 – The Human Impact of Climate Change Globally: https://bit.ly/2RbCcNQ
