State Climatologist Says Snow Storms Could Continue for Two to Three Weeks

PISCATAWAY — If it wasn’t bad enough that groundhog Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter, State Climatologist David A. Robinson said two to three more weeks of snowstorms are possible in south Jersey.
“It’s a pattern that seems to want to continue,” he said. “It looks from the models that it’s going to continue for the next two to three weeks.”
Snowstorms could continue to march our way due to weather patterns influenced by El Nino, which is an ocean atmospheric pattern that comes every three to seven years in the tropical Pacific that disrupts more common weather patterns globally.
Robinson, who is also Rutgers University Geography Department Chair, told the Herald we are experiencing an El Nino winter, which is contributing to moisture that is bringing about abundant snowfall.
“El Nino events tend to be on the mild side so you usually don’t get a lot of snow,” he said.
Robinson said we are experiencing a moderate El Nino effect, which is supplying moisture from the tropics into the southeastern U.S., and is combining with a weather pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation that is not being overwhelmed by the modest El Nino. The oscillation helps bring down colder air to the eastern U.S., he said.
“What you have is this alignment of the cold air and the abundant moisture and it’s been just cold enough to snow,” said Robinson. “But the cold air to the north has also been resistant enough to keep the storm systems from moving too far north up the coast, so they’ve come up to the Mid Atlantic and then headed out to sea.”
“It’s this unique recipe that has led to the Mid Atlantic taking it on the chin multiple times,” he said.
North Jersey and New England is having a “run-of-the-mill winter and southern New Jersey to Virginia is getting pummeled with record-breaking snowfall, he said.
Robinson said winter snowfalls totals in this county range from 30.5 inches in Sea Isle City to 49.2 inches in Cape May. Woodbine and Middle Township are showing winter snowfall totals over 40 inches.
Many weather stations in the state don’t have long term records including Cape May that has records dating back only to 1970.
In the winter of 1995-1996, Cape May received 45.1 inches of snow, which has been exceeded this year, said Robinson. That winter included 10 inches of snow in March and .8 in April.
This year’s snowfall has exceeded 40 years of records for Cape May.
Robinson said before winter started, it was apparent there would be a number of Atlantic storms. He pointed to a coastal storm in September, another storm in mid October and a large storm on Veteran’s Day. A snowstorm arrived here on Dec. 19 dropping six inches followed by a fairly quiet January, said Robinson.
A Feb. 5 storm brought this county the heaviest snowfall in the state.
“We still have a lot of winter to go,” said Robinson. “This is a remarkable year, unprecedented in weather records in Atlantic City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington.”
Does our record cold winter in the Mid Atlantic pour cold water on the theory of global warming? Robinson said one winter does not prove or disprove global climate change.
He said models suggest that we should be prone to more extreme storms with global warming and it will continue to snow in New Jersey until the planet warms enough that it becomes very difficult for snow to fall here.
To say global warming will lead to bigger snowstorms is a tough call, said Robinson.