Alberto was deadly and spent before the official hurricane season began June 1. That system swirled across the South. It claimed two lives and three others were feared dead in North Carolina May 31 after they were swept away in floodwaters caused by the subtropical storm.
With that grim introduction, Cape May County emergency managers are prepared for the 2018 season of Atlantic hurricanes that will continue until Nov. 30.
On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecast a 75 percent chance that this Atlantic hurricane season would be near or above normal.
Since Cape May County is rated as one of the most difficult counties in the nation to evacuate, due to limited evacuation routes, some of which may flood, keeping an eye toward swirling offshore storms and heeding official warnings are elementary to survival.
Prediction
Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for those named storms.
While NOAA has made gains in computers and hardware to predict a storm’s track, the destruction caused by hurricanes in 2017 underscored the need for prompt, accurate hurricane forecasts as well as the need to heed the warnings. Many in Florida and elsewhere have not fully recovered from the impact of last year’s hurricanes.
Free Warnings
To assist Cape May County residents, the county Office of Emergency Management implemented free Code Red Mobile Alerts. Individuals may sign up for the app on the county website. Alerts are delivered to cellphones.
In addition, free Herald mobile text alerts to cellphones, which warn of storm conditions and closures, are available by subscribing on the Herald website. Click on the home icon and scroll down to Mobile Alerts.
NOAA forecasters advise there is a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. That mix of storms may include one to four major hurricanes of Categories 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or higher.
Stormy Dozen
They stated that an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms with six becoming hurricanes, and, of those, three will develop into major hurricanes.
The possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea-surface temperatures over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea are factors that were taken into account for the outlook.
While emergency managers warn everyone to prepare for hurricanes, few heed that advice. Many are reluctant to leave their homes, even when flooding is forecast.
When an evacuation is ordered, roads quickly clog with cars, and gas stations are pressed to the maximum and may be drained of fuel by the exodus. Many panic, they leave home without their medication or supplies.
“It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare,” stated Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski. “Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communications and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials,” he continued.
NOAA plans to update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August that is prior to the peak of the hurricane season.
Hurricane Names
This year’s tropical cyclones’ names:
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William.
Prepare, Heed Warnings
The Cape May County Office of Emergency Management offers a wide range of preparedness information including the following:
If Officials Indicate Evacuation Is Necessary
Leave as soon as possible. Avoid flooded roads and watch for washed-out bridges.
Secure your home by unplugging appliances and turning off electricity and the main water valve.
Tell someone outside of the storm area where you are going.
If time permits, and you live in an identified surge zone, elevate furniture to protect it from flooding or better yet, move it to a higher floor.
Bring pre-assembled emergency supplies and warm protective clothing.
Take blankets and sleeping bags to shelter.
Lock up home and leave.
