Don’t Delay, Leave Today If Order’s Given

OCEAN CITY – With eastern Texas recovering from Hurricane Harvey, and Hurricane Irma bearing down on Florida, there was plenty to talk about at the second annual Cape-Atlantic Severe Weather Conference at the Ocean City Music Pier Sept. 7.
According to Frank Donato, Ocean City’s emergency management coordinator and one of the event’s organizers, that’s not entirely a coincidence.
He said he and local meteorologist Dan Skeldon plan the event to coincide with the most active time for hurricanes.
Rather than offer presentations, Skeldon sought questions from the hundreds attending. A panel of experts attended, including some who were well known in the region’s media markets, and others who are more often behind the scenes.
Experts included Jim Eberwine, a hurricane expert who is retired from the National Weather Service; Tom Lamaine, formerly a meteorologist with CBS 3; John Miller, a U.S. Senate fellow working on policy issues with the National Flood Insurance Program; Joe Miketta, National Weather Service meteorologist with the Mount Holly office, Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz, of NBC 10, and David Yoel,  chief executive officer and founder of American Aerospace Technologies. 
Drones, Post-disaster
Yoel’s company is working on using drones, or unmanned aerial systems, after disasters. Before the main event, he gave a presentation on the company’s work, which includes using drones to inspect infrastructure such as bridges after a disaster, to search for survivors, or as flying cellphone towers, which could improve communication after regular service is knocked out.
Storm Discussion
Over the course of the wide-ranging discussion, there were a few disagreements among panelists as the questions ranged from the pragmatic to the very technical, with one meteorology student asking about hurricane eye replacement, an effect in, particularly strong storms.
Main Message
But if there was one message driven home repeatedly throughout the evening, it was to pay attention to emergency management officials. If officials call for an evacuation, they have a good reason.
Several on the panel mentioned that during Hurricane Sandy, the worst storm to hit New Jersey in memory, many were reluctant to evacuate because of the year before, there was little damage after Cape May County was evacuated for Hurricane Irene.
The Last Storm
Part of the reason people were willing to evacuate in Florida as Irma closed in was the horrific images of Harvey’s aftermath, they said.
“You’re only as good as your last forecast, and people only remember the last storm,” said Skeldon, who worked with former TV 40 and until recently, with The Press of Atlantic City.
Don’t Trust Social Media
Another repeated message: Don’t trust social media. The experts said much of what is shared through Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms should not be trusted. They said to check the source of the shared information.
Martin Pagliughi, Cape May County’s emergency management coordinator, had a similar message.
Listen to Experts
“You don’t go by some home-grown meteorologist. You listen to the experts. You listen to the emergency managers,” he said at the start of the event. “We had major problems after Hurricane Sandy as far as reentry goes on a lot of the islands because people were texting and emailing their friends in Pennsylvania, saying the sun’s out, my power is on, come on down. Meanwhile, the towns weren’t open yet.”
He said in Avalon and Stone Harbor, which escaped the worst of Sandy’s damage, there were 64 gas leaks from storm damage.
There are reasons emergency managers make decisions, and they are almost always in order to keep people safe, he said.
What Turns ‘Em?
One resident asked what causes a hurricane to turn. As of Sept. 7, projections showed Hurricane Irma making a sharp turn to the north, and in other instances, including Sandy, storms heading north have turned to the east.
The hurricane itself is only part of the picture. The panelists said other weather patterns effect the path of the storm.
That includes tropical patterns, but also patterns on the mainland of the United States, and Arctic weather patterns, which Schwartz said influenced the path of Hurricane Sandy.
Climate Change Factor
The impact of climate change presented the strongest disagreement among the experts. A member of the public asked about the impact of warmer water and rising sea levels on future hurricanes, in the frequency and intensity of storms, and the possibility of a longer hurricane season.
Skeldon said hurricane forecasters do not see a connection between climate change and the intensity or frequency of hurricanes.
“That doesn’t mean climate change doesn’t have anything to do with it. It’s just that there’s not enough information out there to make a tie-in,” Skeldon said. “It doesn’t mean it’s not happening, but they just don’t see a correlation yet.”
Warmer Sea Water
But he added that warmer water does mean stronger and more intense storms and that a warmer Atlantic since 1995 has meant more hurricanes.
Schwartz said part of the difficulty with hurricanes is that there aren’t enough of them to study completely. There are about 150 years of fairly accurate data, he said. A warmer ocean will mean a stronger storm,  and warmer air will also mean more moisture in the storm.
Suspicion, Not Proof
“So if you add the two to rising sea level, which is already happening, now you have multiple factors that raise the suspicion. Suspicion, not proof. And the level of suspicion just keeps increasing. Every time we get one of these Harveys, for example, which sets all of these records,” he said, citing several other record breaking storms.
“Even though there’s a great agreement among climate scientists that there is a general warming, and what’s going to happen in the future, there is more disagreement related to hurricanes, and to whether we’re seeing enough evidence to prove something. I happen to think that 20 years from now, we’re going to look back and say why didn’t they realize this? What were they waiting for?”
His comments drew cheers in the room.
“You don’t want to believe it, but it’s just another piece of evidence that gets added to the list. You know, 20 years ago, I just scoffed at all of that,” he said.
Skepticism
Eberwine sounded far more skeptical, comparing the earth’s natural weather patterns to the body’s response to a fever or a cold, calling it a natural process for life on the planet.
More Oceanfront Homes
Lamaine pointed out that far more people live near the coast than ever before, which makes coastal storms that much more dangerous.
Another technical element that was discussed at length was the difference between the European model and the American model for forecasting. As Sandy rolled north, it was the European model that predicted that sharp left turn that proved so devastating, while the American model, or the Global Forecast System, is prepared by the National Weather Service. Both use computers and weather data to project the most likely weather patterns to come.
According to Schwartz, the European model has far more computer power devoted to it, and while the American model is improving, the European model continues to improve as well. He said both start with the same data, but end up with different results.
Differences in Predictions
“In the U.S., the weather services take their money and their computer power to do a lot of different things. That takes the resources and separates them and narrows them down. You can’t put everything into the one basket. The Europeans do believe in that, and so they’ve put all of their money and all of their computer power into this one model,” Schwartz said. “Even though the U.S. model just keeps getting better and better, the European started better, and just keeps getting better, and this country just can’t catch up. It gets kind of embarrassing once in a while.”
Caution on Models
Lamaine cautioned against relying too much on the models. He said an independent forecaster has to use experience and thought to evaluate the possibilities.
Miketta added that the European model is not always right.
“And I think it’s good that we have the European model out there as competition because it does make it better,” he said.
Weather Service
Later in the event, Miketta talked about the data available at www.weather.gov, which now includes projections of potential storm surges based on elevations. He suggested taking a look at the site’s hurricane projections for Irma, when there is not a huge storm looming over South Jersey, to see what information is available.
Flood Insurance Program
The future of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) also came up, with a resident pointing out that the NFIP is deep in the red, and up for reauthorization. He asked what effect two back-to-back storms could have on the future of the program.
“You’re absolutely correct. The program is in a big hole,” said Miller, described as the panel’s flood insurance expert.
Few people in Houston had flood insurance, he said, perhaps about 15 percent, but the damage was such that the claims are likely to be very high.
“Both these events are going to change the course of this year’s reauthorization (bill in Congress). You are right, at the end of this month, the National Flood Insurance authorization times out. It expires,” he said.
A short-term extension of the program is likely, he said, but Miller believed that most officials realize the NFIP is far too important and the program will not lapse because of the support of bankers, real estate lobby, and homeowners.
“Everybody knows that this program can’t shut down,” he said.
To contact Bill Barlow, email bbarlow@cmcherald.com.