Less Young People, More Problems?

COURT HOUSE – The most recent American Community Survey (ACS) data shows Cape May County’s median age is 50.1-years-old. It also shows a declining population in the county, with the total permanent population estimated at 93,553 – down from its peak in 2000, when the population topped 102,000. 
The data also showed a housing unit vacancy rate of 60%, the number largely created by the high volume of second homes on the island communities where many of the vacation homes have multiple housing units.
A front page article in the Sept. 11 Herald explored the numbers from a county-wide perspective. This article will make use of the same data, but it will do so by examining the county’s 16 municipalities.
Aging
If one starts with a look at the median age by municipality, it should not be a surprise that many of the island communities, with increasing rates of second homes and driving up land value, have median ages well above the county average.
Four communities have median ages that are over 60-years-old. They are Cape May Point, 68; Avalon, 64.8; Sea Isle City, 62.9; and Stone Harbor, 61.4. Each of the four also has housing unit vacancy rates above 80%.
The relationship between median age and housing unit vacancy is striking. The county median age of 50.1 years is surpassed in eight of the 16 municipalities: Cape May Point, Avalon, Sea Isle City, Stone Harbor, Wildwood Crest, West Wildwood, North Wildwood, and Ocean City.
These eight are also the only municipalities with a vacancy rate above 73%. The communities also account for almost three quarters (73%) of the county’s total assessed valuation.
These communities are where the county is aging most rapidly, where the second homeownership is highest and where the money is in terms of land value.
Contrast that with the five mainland communities: Upper, Dennis, Middle, and Lower townships and Woodbine. The five communities account for 67% of the county’s population, two out of every three persons. All have a median age below the county’s number and together they account for 20% of the 2019 total county valuation.
It should be noted that some anomalies stand out in the statistics.
Wildwood, unlike the other island communities, has a median age of 45.6, below the county numbers and in line with the mainland communities, while its vacancy rate is 67%, which is more in line with other island communities.
Cape May’s median age of 40.9 puts it as the county community closest to the state’s 39.8, yet the 2016 ACS reported the median age for Cape May was 48.8. 
No other area of the county displays this kind of significant change in reported demographic data. Could Cape May have decreased its median age by almost eight years in one year?
A look at the age grouping used by the ACS shows that between 2016 and 2017, the census estimates show an increase of 106 individuals in the age range of 25 to 44, along with a decrease of 138 people in the grouping 65 to 74.
Data for all other entities show reasonable year-to-year shifts. Why Cape May’s data tells such a different tale is unclear.
Population Decline
The Sept. 11 article demonstrated that census data on county population since 2000 showed an overall decline of about 8.5% since the population peaked in 2000. It also showed that the overall decline masked a rapid drop in residents in the county’s island communities, along with a rapid loss of younger residents replaced by those at or near retirement age.
Looking at specific municipalities confirms that the county’s population continues to be largely in the mainland communities.
Since 2000, only Middle Township added people to its count with a 2000 census population of 16.405 compared to the ACS estimated population for 2017 of 18,623. That represents a growth of 2,218 individuals or an increase of 13.5%.
All other mainland communities showed some decline in numbers but at rates significantly below the county losses. The one exception is Woodbine, whose 2000 to 2017 drop was 262 individuals, or almost 10%.
On the islands, the population shifts were all negative and in double digits, with Avalon, Sea Isle City, and Ocean City each dropping 25% or more.   
Due to its size, Ocean City’s population loss of 26% represents a decline of over 4,000 individuals, from a 2000 census population of 15,378 to 11,328 in 2017.
Diversity
The Census Bureau defines race as a person’s “self-identification.” A person can self-report as white, African American, Asian, Pacific Islander, and Native American or as a member of a series of other categories.
Hispanic is considered an ethnic designation. Hispanic Americans can report as any race.
If one strictly uses self-identified race in the ACS 2017 five-year report, the percentage of the county that identifies as white is 93%, leaving a 7% minority population. Almost 90% of the minority population is concentrated in six of the county’s 16 municipalities, with one out of every three of the minority identified individuals residing in Woodbine (35%). 
Middle Township is second, accommodating 15% of the minority population, followed by Wildwood (13%), West Cape May (11%), Cape May (8%) and Ocean City (8%).
In terms of the self-identified Hispanic population, the group represents 7% of the total. Like the minority population, Hispanics are heavily concentrated, with 95% of those identified in six municipalities, led by Lower Township at 22%. 
Lower Township is followed by Wildwood (17%) and Middle Township (16%). The other three towns with significant concentrations of Hispanics are Ocean City (13%), Woodbine (9%) and Cape May (8%). 
In both categories, self-identified minorities and Hispanics, Woodbine leads all other towns in the group’s ratio to the municipality’s total population. Minorities in Woodbine account for 34% of the population. 
Those who self-identify as Hispanics account for 25% of Woodbine residents. Since self-identified Hispanics can also identify with any race, ratios can’t be summed.
Note on Data
There are certain peculiarities to the census data that mean it is not unusual to find that a row of detail numbers may not add to the aggregate number reported in another census report. When dealing with the decennial census, one has a different level of ease with the numbers than with the estimates from the ACS reported in the periods between a full census.
Part of that is because the Census Bureau, through the ACS, does the same five-year profile for places with a population of less than 5,000.
With the measurement deficiencies, some of which may highlight apparent anomalies that the next full census will resolve, the data is a reliable guide to changes over time between the 10-year cycles.
What spurred a look at the census data for Cape May County was the ACS’ 2017 one-year report that the median age of the county had topped 50-years-old.
A Census Bureau Fact Finder Table documents the steady growth in the median age of Cape May County, moving incrementally from 47.2 years in 2010 to 50.1 as of the 2017 ACS.
The trend line is consistent with the fact that the nation as a whole is getting older. Two of the nation’s counties have median ages that are over 60: Sumter, Fla. (67.1) and Catron, N.M. (60.5).
The Future 
In the Sept. 11 article, two different projections for future population levels showed Cape May County remaining at approximately 93,000 inhabitants to 2040 or continuing to decline to 79,000 in the same period. The future is difficult to predict.
The trends the county is witnessing may be cause for alarm and action. They could be showing the emergence of a county that can’t support growth or stability of its younger, working-age population with families.
A 2019 Brookings Institution paper looked at areas in the country that are losing young people. The authors argued that the significant variables in decisions to remain or migrate were economic, including housing opportunities for young families.
Many areas in the country that are losing population also see deflation in property values. That has not been the case in Cape May County, largely because of the second-home trends on the islands and the impact of the concentrated tourist spending for rentals during the summer.
Whether the young are incentivized to stay may be the determining factor over what the county will look like in 2040.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.