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COURT HOUSE – The story of the last week was an unrelenting surge in new COVID-19 cases in Cape May County.
In the last seven days, the county reported 183 new positive cases among county residents and seven new cases in the non-resident population. That is a daily average of 27 cases per day across all populations, the highest seven-day average since the first reported case, in March.
Although the numbers are highest in mainland population centers, like Lower and Middle townships, the most rapid growth in cases since mid-October occurred in the county’s island communities.
The four municipalities that share Five Mile Island, for example, increased from six active cases Oct. 15 to 59 confirmed cases Nov. 9.
The mainland municipalities Oct. 15 accounted for 75% of a smaller total of active county cases. The same municipalities Nov. 9 represent a little over 50% of the total due to the growth of cases in the island resort communities.
The overall reality is that case counts are soaring across the nation and in New Jersey. The state reported 16,000 new cases in the previous seven days.
Deaths are not rising the way they did in April and May. In the week that just ended, the county Nov. 5 reported one additional fatality due to COVID-19, an 89-year-old Upper Township woman.
The declining mortality rate appears to be related to a medical system that is more knowledgeable about the virus and better prepared to deal with it.
The drop in the death rate from COVID-19 infection does not signify an easy road for many of those who contract the virus. The public health community is becoming increasingly aware of long-term negative symptoms reported by individuals who, at one point, were infected.
COVID-19-related hospitalizations have been increasing rapidly across the state. They are also on the rise in the county. State health officials Nov. 9 reported 1,537 COVID-19 patients across the state’s 71 acute care hospitals.
In the county, Cape Regional Medical Center, as of Nov. 9, had seven COVID-19 patients, two of whom required critical care. That is an increase from two patients a little over two weeks ago.
The county’s Health Department does not report testing data, nor does it provide a public positivity rate for the county. State data identifies the positivity rate for three sections of New Jersey, including a seven-county southern region.
Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli Nov. 9 said the state’s positivity rate was 7.52%, while the rate for the southern region stood at 8.01%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and most state and local health officials set a threshold positivity rate that is below 5%, with a goal of being well below that number.
State health experts Nov. 9 said that the positivity rate is growing because the virus is spreading faster than increases in testing can keep up.
Another key health metric is the rate of transmission, or RT. The desired threshold for this metric is 1.0, or less. In New Jersey, the RT resisted receding to 1.0 and stands at 1.24.
This measure projects that each infected individual in the soaring numbers of new cases will result in the transmission of the virus to more than one additional person, perpetuating the spread.
Gov. Phil Murphy took two steps Nov. 9 that re-imposed restrictions, as part of his response to the rising case numbers.
Restaurants and bars must close their indoor facilities between 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. each day. Murphy said the state had evidence of a “developing fact pattern” that linked late-night activity at restaurants and bars to non-compliant behavior, which, in turn, aided in the spread of the disease.
He added that outdoor dining, takeout, and delivery options are not impacted by this new restriction. In addition, all “bar seating” must be eliminated.
Murphy also prohibited all indoor interstate youth and high school sports games. Murphy said there was an increased risk of virus spread when teams travel from state to state for such events.
Murphy emphasized that the new restrictions “do not preclude us from taking further action” in the near term if the health metrics do not improve.
Chances that a vaccine will be ready and approved soon increased. News from Pfizer about the potential effectiveness of its vaccine was praised by state officials at the governor’s Nov. 9 press briefing.
News of the possible vaccine does not change the prognosis for a long winter with the pandemic. Most health officials agreed that the general availability of any vaccine is probably in the April to June period, at the earliest, with select populations, including health workers, first on the list for earlier distribution.
State and local health experts continue to urge the public to “fight off COVID fatigue” and maintain the disciplined use of health protocols for facial coverings, social distancing, personal hygiene, and limited social gatherings.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.
