Analysis: 2014 UCR Crime Report

COURT HOUSE – Suppose you were outside and took a bad fall on the ice. You ache all over; your wrist, right leg, ankle and shoulder took the brunt of the impact. You go to the Emergency Room and the doctor asks you “where does it hurt?” You reply, “Everywhere… especially on my whole right side, and my left arm and wrist.” The doctor says, “OK, I will cast your right leg, tape up your chest, and cast your right ankle, set your left wrist with an air splint, wrap your left arm, and get you crutches. You can take two aspirin and come back in eight weeks. That should cover everything.”
In this scenario you would probably be pretty shocked that the doctor did not order x-rays and other tests to diagnose exactly what your injuries are, where they are, and how serious they may be before treating you. This would be the “shotgun” approach; not very selective or cost effective, but it doesn’t take much thought.
In the world of public safety, the same theory applies. Police also try to diagnose what the crime problems are in their community, where those problems exist, how serious the crime problems are and then devise a focused “treatment” plan to address the “illness.”
The National and State Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system is designed to help police make a good diagnosis and devise a smart plan to combat the problem.
The New Jersey State Police recently released its Uniform Crime Report (UCR) for the calendar year 2014 as compared to 2013. The report includes crime rates and clearance rates (the batting average of crimes reported versus crimes solved) for most, if not all municipalities in the state and are available for police, government officials and citizens to review. To access the UCR Reports visit http://goo.gl/Wc2Mc1 (case sensitive).
These crime stats are essential for residents to understand the risks and threats in their own neighborhoods. In addition, prospective residents looking to relocate to a town or community to retire, or seek employment, etc., want to learn all they can about that area as well.
Businesses seek investment opportunities in safe communities where their property, customers and their employees can feel safe. Economic development can rise or fall based on a variety of factors, including crime rates and quality-of-life issues in any given community.
The Herald spot checked some UCR statistics from the 543-page document to identify any notable patterns of crime within some representative communities. At this point, the issue of perspective and context for these reports is warranted.
There is an old adage that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. Although we seek reliable and valid data to analyze, we must be careful to remember that the “numbers” do, sometimes lie, that is if we fail to interpret those numbers properly.
Sampling of Departments
Lower Township, as the largest township by population, reported a 75 percent increase in auto theft in 2014 versus 2013. This seems to be an alarming trend until we check the raw numbers and find that the actual count went from four thefts reported in 2013 to seven in 2014. This is hardly a crime wave, yet statistically, it appears to be a major problem. This is how context becomes crucial to making good decisions about what is really going on. Simple assaults remained virtually the same from 2013 to 2014, with a net gain of one assault in 2014.
Sea Isle City reported a significant 33.6 percent reduction in theft from 2013 to 2014, as well as a 70.3 percent drop in forcible burglaries. The raw numbers are relatively small, so percentages of decrease are magnified beyond what they appear to be, but still, this is good news.
The report also indicates that no burglaries or thefts were cleared by arrest. Again, this appears to indicate a problem with investigations and patrol practices; why was no one arrested? Or is there another explanation?
Statistical summaries and conclusions based on numbers alone are only as accurate as the data being inputted. Computer problems or incorrect report submission procedures may account for the lack of “solved” crimes in this community. Further review is needed to gain the real context of the raw numbers that concern us.
A spot check of Middle Township indicates that it achieved a commendable 28.1 percent clearance rate for unlawful entries, and a 25 percent clearance rate for forcible and attempted burglaries. The municipality also experienced a 16.7 percent increase in simple assaults, but also managed a 64 percent clearance rate for those assaults. Again, both good and bad results are reported, depending on our interpretation and context.
The Herald also reviewed these reports to identify other, more fundamental issues that may be important to the residents of Cape May County. One issue is citizen access to crime statistics. How easy is it to learn about the public safety problems in a given area?
Citizen Access to Crime Data
Criminologists and analysts agree that modern policing relies on crime analysis as a tool for police administrators to decide when, where and how to deploy their scarce police resources. Most departments use some form of crime mapping to track patterns and trends for this very reason. But are the police the only stakeholders who have an interest in knowing the state of crime and safety in the township, borough or community?
A survey of various police department websites revealed varying levels of access to crime information for residents, potential residents and potential business investors.
The Lower Township Police Department’s website features a prominent “CrimeReports.com” tab that provides crime information on serious offenses like robbery, rape, assaults and burglaries and also captures data on some quality-of-life offenses such as disorderly conduct, vandalism, etc.
This system also provides a “crime map” that graphically shows the location of offenses that were reported so that residents can know precisely what has occurred, and where in their communities it happened.
Registered sex offenders are also identified on the crime map so residents know exactly what they are entitled to know under the current laws. Residents can look at monthly patterns that are archived for about six months.
No narcotics violations could be found however, even though there is a strong perception of a serious drug problem throughout all of Cape May County. This curious lack of narcotics-specific reporting to the public was also found in the other municipalities surveyed. Perhaps narcotics mapping is being done, but residents do not have access to this information.
The Lower Township Police Department system seemed to be the most user friendly and flexible tool for residents to learn about their own community crime problems. Lower Township’s year-round population approaches 23,000.
The Middle Township Police Department also publishes a “weekly blotter” that includes “calls for service” (CFS) data as well as actual crime information for the previous week. A CFS includes any call to the 911 system that requests a routine police service, not necessarily a “crime report.”
This site does list all serious offenses and those minor offenses that would be considered a “quality of life” offense such as harassment, shoplifting, threats and disorderly conduct. No narcotics violations were found on this site as well. Middle Township year round population is approximately 18,911.
The City of Cape May, year-round population of 3,607, does not offer on-line crime reporting access to residents. Records Clerk Dorann Heminway compiles crime reports and maintains those statistics for any legitimate request from residents or others who have an interest in knowing the safety environment of Cape May City. She responds to individual requests from the public. The city also publicizes special circumstances and alerts with press releases.
Sea Isle City with a year-round population of 2,114 provides access to monthly reports on its “Police Records” tab, on the left side of the website. Monthly reports provide summaries in categories such as investigations, adult arrests and juvenile arrests, but does not indicate what offenses they committed.
The report also shows “quality of life” offenses such as noise complaints, disturbances and fights. A 2013 yearly summary is available, but does not break down crime rates beyond summarizing “crimes investigated.” No narcotics offenses were found on this site.
Ocean City, with a year-round population of 11,701, and Wildwood with a year-round population of 5,325 do not appear to provide residents access to crime reports on their websites. The Herald was not able to contact a person in authority at either agency to discuss their system. Nor was the Herald able to contact someone in authority at Lower Township Police Department to discuss their system.
Woodbine, Dennis Township and Upper Township rely on New Jersey State Police for public safety services.
Enforcement Strategies: Quality of Life and the “Broken Windows” Theory
In 1982, James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling offered a policing theory that if, for instance, a building suffers a vandalized broken window and no one repairs the window or reports it to police, then more windows are more likely to be broken by vandals who feel that residents and law enforcement don’t care about the neighborhood. Eventually the building will be burglarized and/or set on fire (more serious crime).
The theory states that if the community and law enforcement pay attention to the minor “quality of life” crimes, then criminals will be less likely to commit more serious offenses in that area because criminals feel uncomfortable in an area where people care about the “small things.”
Larger cities like New York and Philadelphia have made the strict enforcement of those minor “quality of life” offenses an important part of their overall community policing strategy.
Both saw significant drops in major crimes after using this tactic for an extended period. Both have also received criticism from some elements of those communities because they believe that this aggressive approach creates a police-state atmosphere.
Other community elements feel that this philosophy has successfully created safer more attractive neighborhoods for residents, prospective residents and businessmen and women looking for opportunities for investment.
Wilson and Keeling believe that we should fix problems while they are small, or risk being overwhelmed by larger crime problems in the future if the smaller ones are ignored. The decision whether to use this (aggressive QOL enforcement) tactic or not may be influenced and determined by the analysis of crime reports and of course, the needs and desires of the public.
Attracting new residents to communities means more taxpayers to bear the burden of improved and growing service needs. Unemployment in Cape May County is a long-term problem that can be improved by encouraging existing businesses to expand, and by attracting new businesses to our communities.
Accurate reporting by residents to police is essential for “smart” crime analysis and cost effective focused police action. Police, in turn, must accurately compile those crime reports from residents, even if it means that the department may take criticism over higher crime rates.
Police need and deserve support and encouragement every day. Police officers work hard, under difficult circumstances to create a safe and prosperous Cape May County.
These UCR reports are, in effect, a report card that attempts to measure police effectiveness and success or to expose unaddressed problem areas.
If residents, police and government officials interpret the data correctly and act upon the analysis creatively, the quality of life for all current and future residents can improve.
To contact Jim McCarty, email jmccarty@cmcherald.com.
(ED. NOTE: The author is a retired Philadelphia police captain.)