COVID-19: Lurking or Leaving?

To access the Herald’s local coronavirus/COVID-19 coverage, click here.
COURT HOUSE – In the weeks since April 12, the number of new, COVID-19 cases continues to decline. Cape May County didn’t release a count on Memorial Day, so the county’s official total remains at 579 confirmed cases, as of May 25. Every expert on infectious diseases says that is almost certainly an undercount. Subclinical, asymptomatic and misdiagnosed cases have had their impact since the state’s first positive test March 4.
The county remains among the lightest hit in the state, with many residents and business owners anxious to begin repairing the COVID-infected economy.
In the last week, Gov. Phil Murphy continued to gradually ease his lockdown restrictions, most notably increasing the limits on public, outdoor gatherings.
Of the 579 confirmed cases, 301 individuals have been removed from quarantine. Eight of the county’s 16 municipalities now have three or fewer active cases. The heavy concentration of cases remains in the county’s long-term care facilities, locations that have also accounted for almost 80% of the fatalities.
For many, this has the feel of a victory won.  That could be deceptive and dangerous.
Little is known about the coronavirus. Many of the pieces known are based on data, which itself is flawed and misleading. Testing, one major source of knowledge on the virus’s spread, has been uneven and concentrated on the overtly symptomatic, leaving people with an incomplete picture of how many have actually contracted it.
People see one population – the visible group ready to challenge the virus, move back to some semblance of normalcy, and restart a damaged economy.
Another population is harder to see – still in seclusion, less trusting, and still looking for signs that the predator is at bay and it is safe to leave the burrow.
Memorial Day brought no traditional opening to the summer season. Speaking on CNN, Cape May Mayor Chuck Lear admitted it was not “quite the weekend we would have hoped for.” Lear said remaining restrictions on hotels and restaurants and unsupportive weather held down the typical crowds for a Memorial Day weekend.
The weekend did, however, bring change.
More individuals ventured out. Lear’s sense was that “about 25% of those in situations where you would hope they would use a mask were doing so.” He added, “I think we can do a better job on that.”
There is confidence on the part of many who are challenging the virus. Others see that confidence as misplaced.
One key metric of improvement in the pandemic is the continued decline in hospitalizations.
The state hit its peak at over 8,000 simultaneous COVID-19 patients April 14. That number stood at 2,755 yesterday, with a low of 719 individuals across the state requiring intensive or critical care. Over half, 53%, of those hospitalizations have involved people over 65, reinforcing the view some have of the disease as dangerous only to the elderly and the compromised.
Yet, close to one in two hospitalizations, 47%, have involved those less than 65 years old. State figures say that one in five related deaths in the state have been individuals under 65, as well. The issue is where is the threshold that provokes alarm and alters behavior?
Is the virus lurking, ready to take full advantage of hubris? Has it retreated, opening an opportunity to begin repairing the economy? Is it a disease to be feared largely by a sub-population of the elderly who need support, while the rest continue rebuilding a normal existence?
Can people agree to make the behavior changes health experts advise to be undertaken?
The next few weeks may tell that tale. This past week was one dominated by steps in the direction of “normalcy.” Those steps are too fast for some and too slow for others.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.
ED. NOTE: See the Herald website for daily COVID-19 updates and related coverage.