County’s COVID-19 Cases Trend Down, While NJ’s Rise

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COURT HOUSE – Dissonance is defined as a lack of harmony. It characterizes a situation in which competing elements define different realities in the same space. Those who are feeling a sense of dissonance over the state of the pandemic, in Cape May County, have every right to be confused.
The numbers seen daily from the county Health Department show a virus spread that is slow and trending down, yet COVID Act Now, the non-profit, highly respected pandemic tracking site, increased its warning level for New Jersey Aug. 3 to its second-highest level, placing the state “at risk for an outbreak.”
Two of the counties whose rising numbers are contributing to that change in classification for New Jersey are neighboring Cumberland and Atlantic counties. Across the bay, Delaware is back on the state’s travel advisory, leaving Cape May County as a lonely oasis surrounded by emerging virus hot spots.
Also Aug. 3, Gov. Phil Murphy tightened restrictions he loosened weeks ago. At his press briefing, Murphy announced that indoor gatherings, which he allowed to be a maximum of 25% of the space’s capacity or no more than 100 people, now would be restricted to the same 25% restriction, but with a new maximum of only 25 people.
Why the change? The state has seen a significant rise in new cases in the last week. The governor reported July 31 699 new cases in a 24-hour period. Murphy also pointed to a precipitous rise in one of the key Health Department metrics – the rate of transmission.
This metric forecasts the number of infections that are likely to follow from each new confirmed case. A rate below one, the state goal, would mean that each new case was likely to produce less than one additional case, slowing the overall rate of infection.
One month ago, the state transmission rate was 0.87. Today, it stands at 1.48. According to Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli, the rate in the southern counties is a threatening 3.46%.
The governor speaks of alarm bells going off as he begins to consider rolling back some of the Stage 2 rules and returning to more restricted activities.
Zoom in on Cape May County. Forget the state’s rising case numbers. The county reports show a space in which the virus is relatively controlled. One week ago, the county had 240 active cases of COVID-19, 160 among county residents and 80 among non-residents. Today, seven days later, the county has 116 total active cases, less than half of what the county had a week ago. Of those, 81 are county residents and 35 are non-residents.
The county’s long-term care facilities, a source of outbreaks for weeks during the grim days of April and May, now have one active case among them. There were 114 June 1.
How can people make sense of the state’s rising case numbers and the county’s relative calm? We have four to five times the county’s normal population and case numbers are retreating.
When asked what factors he felt were contributing to rising state numbers, Murphy enumerated three things.
First, he cited “flare-ups in the rest of the country,” which directly and indirectly impact New Jersey. Travel is one danger and the state’s travel advisory seems to grow each week. Now, it is easier to list the states one can freely travel from than those which require a two-week quarantine upon entry in New Jersey.
Second, Murphy said that the growth of cases in so many states has put pressure on the supplies and capacity needed to conduct robust testing.
One impact is that turnaround times on test results are lagging, making contact tracing less meaningful.
Lastly, he pointed to the need of many to get on with life. Murphy compared it to “falling off the wagon.” He urged people to maintain the discipline necessary to defeat the virus. He particularly spoke of the dangers of indoor house parties, often of the young, at which the virus can spread rapidly and easily.
Zoom in again and one can see that Cape May County has experienced some reckless behavior. The story of the party by Avalon lifeguards that resulted in 25 of them in quarantine is a well-known example. The county saw spikes of non-resident cases in early July, but they have since dissipated.
There is a lot not known. Without better information, it is impossible to resolve the dissonance. There is no information on testing volume in the county, turnaround times, or successful and unsuccessful contact tracing. The public is not provided with health metrics like positivity rates and rates of transmission at the county level.
What the county has are case counts, which appear to be trending well. Hopefully, there’s enough respect left for the danger the virus presents to realize that caution is still warranted.
This week, the county reported a total of 49 new cases, resident and non-resident, for an average of seven per day. With a population well in excess of the county’s normal numbers, the reports don’t sound so bad for the middle of a pandemic.
However, the echo of alarm bells in the distance upsets the peace. At least for now, the county is on the right side of the dissonance.
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.