Will High Gas Prices Chase Away Visitors?

CAPE MAY — If gasoline prices reach $5 per gallon this summer and possibly $6 per gallon by year’s end, will visitors still drive to this county for vacations?
According to local experts, visitors will still come to Cape May County but they may come from higher income groups and Canada. Middle-income families may come for shorter stays.
Richard Perniciaro, Ph.D, director of the Center for Regional and Business Research at Atlantic Cape Community College, told the Herald the first step people take when facing high gas prices is to rearrange their vacation budget.
“Instead of spending a lot more money eating out, they spend more on gas, so they reapportion their vacation budget, but still go on the vacation,” he said.
“Overall, visitors will still drive as much as a couple of hundred miles to get to Cape May County, but will spend less money when they get here,” said Perniciaro.
He said while some folks will cancel their vacations due to high gas prices, the Jersey shore is more likely to draw tourists who do not want to drive a longer distance to vacation.
“In general, we’ve done fairly well in these times,” said Perniciaro.
He said the county’s closeness to major population centers makes it unique. According to the county Tourism Department, more than 30 million people live within a 300-mile radius of this county.
Instead of driving to Myrtle Beach or Hilton Head S.C., gas prices will encourage mid-Atlantic residents to come to the Jersey shore, said Perniciaro.
While folks with less money may be discouraged from a shore vacation, those from a higher income group may take their place here.
Some folks who in times of cheaper gas may take more exotic vacations may instead come to the shore. A benefit of those visitors is they are used to spending higher amounts of money on vacation, he said.
Their tastes may be more expensive than those of day-trippers.
Storekeepers surveyed by Perniciaro in Ocean City and Stone Harbor have replaced some lower valued items and replaced them with high value goods, said Perniciaro.
If gas reaches $6 a gallon will tourism decrease in the county? Perniciaro said he believes it would impact the number of visitors. He said he has noticed less traffic on the roads in the county during this early part of the tourist season.
Those who decide to stay home if gas hits $6-$7 per gallon, would do so not because it costs $7 per gallon to get to the shore but because so much of their budget is spent on gas, they decide they cannot afford a vacation, he said.
When vacations are booked months ahead, it is less likely they will be cancelled due to rising gas prices, however, according to Perniciaro.
With a weak U.S. dollar, Europeans will find traveling to this country a bargain. However, traditionally, Cape May County has not seen a lot of European visitors, he said.
Cruise ship lines have moved ships out of the Caribbean because fares are paid in dollars and put them in the Mediterranean where currencies are valued higher.
“The leisure world is rearranging because of the dollar,” he said.
Since 47 percent of homes in this county are second homes, those homeowners will still come to the shore. Perniciaro predicted second homeowners may make fewer trips to the shore but stay longer.
Overall, Perniciaro said he did not predict a huge change this summer.
“People do not have to commute hundreds and hundreds of miles to get here; we’re right near the population centers and that’s our benefit,” he said.
Chris Clemans, owner of Chris Clemans Sotheby’s International Realty, told the Herald vacation home rentals were “way ahead of last year.” Most renters reserved homes during the early winter months when gas was less expensive, she said.
Clemans said she did believe home rentals would be affected by high gas prices this year.
Innkeeper Larry Muentz said Cape May faced a nationwide oil shortage in the late ’70s and early ’80s, which kept a percentage of regular visitors away from the county and caused a shift in the demographics of who vacationed here. He predicted those who come to the county for three-day stays may not come at all, and those who normally come for a week may stay for a shorter time.