The county now has 1,050 active community cases, the lowest level since mid-December. The number of weekly new cases has declined by 50% in two weeks.
Even the long-term care facilities have been able to bring a new set of outbreaks under control, driving what the county reported as 99 active cases two weeks ago down to 26 this week.
Hospitalizations are also declining. The state Covid dashboard shows the south region, an area of seven southern counties, has witnessed a 44% decline in new cases and a 40% drop in Covid intensive care unit (ICU) patients in the last three weeks.
In the county, Cape Regional Medical Center reported 58 Covid positive patients Jan. 10. That number is down to 15, as of Jan. 31.
The natural lag between the onset of new cases and the rise of individuals with severe complications means that the increase in fatalities has not yet matched the ebbing in the infection rate.
The county reported six new Covid-related deaths this week, bringing the number of county residents who succumbed to the disease since the onset of 2022 to 30, a rate of one fatality per day.
Since the onset of the pandemic, county reports show only two towns that have not experienced a Covid-related death, Cape May Point and Stone Harbor.
Risk Level Rating
The pandemic tracking site, Covid Act Now, lowered its rating of risk for New Jersey this week by one notch from its worst rating. Yet, Cape May County continues to be rated as a location of extreme risk for Covid infection due to the high daily rate of new cases at an average of 80 per day, a number that looks good only in comparison to where that statistic has been for the last several weeks.
The site shows a county rate of infection that has finally retreated below the threshold of 1.0. It stands at 0.69, a level that means each infected individual is now passing on that infection to fewer than one additional person, a sign that the surge is burning itself out.
News on the Vaccine Front
The Moderna vaccine has now joined Pfizer as two vaccines that have gained full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Pfizer is now predicting it will have a vaccine ready for children under 5 within weeks. That vaccine has not yet been through FDA analysis and approval protocols.
In the county, the number of fully vaccinated individuals continues to inch up but is not now making significant inroads into the unvaccinated population.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Cape May County has approximately 71% of its resident population fully vaccinated, a percentage the county hit several weeks ago and has not appreciably improved since. The CDC notes that only 46% of the county’s adult population have received a booster shot.
Health officials continue to say that the booster shot is the best defense against serious omicron infection. Both Pfizer and Moderna predict a need for a fourth shot in fall 2022. The low rate of acceptance of the current booster may make an effort to deliver the fourth shot problematic.
Learning to Live with the Virus?
The ebbing of the omicron wave of infections in some areas of the country raises the question of what is next for a pandemic that is in its third year.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic in March 2020. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, in its various forms, has accounted for over 5.5 million deaths worldwide since then. Researchers at UCLA have ventured the opinion that omicron may eventually be seen as a “hallmark event” because it “brings light to the end of the tunnel.”
In a UCLA Health post, dated Jan. 13, these researchers venture the prediction that omicron may be the pathway to Covid becoming endemic, with predictable rates of infection similar to the seasonal flu.
The appearance of increased immunity provided by vaccines, boosters, and the spread of the omicron variant could slow the appearance of future variants. That opinion was offered by UCLA epidemiologist Dr. Timothy Brewer.
Even those health researchers who share the view that omicron may speed the end of the pandemic phase of Covid offer the caution that the virus has been remarkably unpredictable.
For omicron to be the last major variant that could lead to an end of the pandemic, several factors still have to fall into line. UCLA clinical microbiologist Dr. Shangxin Yang adds, “Obviously, we need time to see that.”
To contact Vince Conti, email vconti@cmcherald.com.
