A new report by the public-private partnership Rebuild by Design says Cape May and Atlantic counties have the most property vulnerable to flood damage in the next 25 years. The report projects 70% of Cape May County will be at risk by 2050.
The report, released May 27, calculates that $278 billion worth of private property in New Jersey faces increasing risk from flooding, with $56 billion of such property in Cape May County alone.
By 2050, the report says, the percentage of property in the county that will be at risk is 70%, with a value of $68 billion and accounting for $437 million in property tax revenue.
Rebuild by Design is part of the Institute for Public Knowledge at New York University. It began as part of a design competition launched by the U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development following the devastation from Hurricane Sandy.
The report calls on the state to plan for short- and long-term migration of population from the riskiest areas. It suggests that New Jersey, cooperating with the federal government, grow its Blue Acres program, which assists residents and municipalities with identifying and avoiding risks of flooding through resilience planning and state-led acquisition of flood-prone property.
The bad news for Cape May County does not end with increased flooding vulnerabilities. The report documents that the county’s property insurance nonrenewal rate has tripled since 2018. Coverage is declining, and the coverage that remains is rapidly increasing in price. With declining coverage comes increasing financial exposure.
The report also calls on the state to create dedicated funding “to prepare for flooding, storm damage and rising insurance costs.” It comes as county officials seek to derail the implementation of the state’s Resilient Environments and Landscapes regulations, which are projected to be adopted this summer.
Critics of the REAL regulations claim that they represent an attempt by state regulators like the Department of Environmental Protection to force a retreat from the Shore, where development has been especially heavy since the pandemic. The REAL critics claim that the state is acting on out-of-date science and worst-case projections.
Amy Chester, director of Rebuild by Design, also sees risk in the federal government’s restructuring of disaster preparedness programs. “New Jersey needs reliable sources of funding to support infrastructure for communities to withstand flooding,” Chester says.
The research incorporates insights from a separate study of New Jersey’s 14 federal disaster declarations from 2011 to 2024. These events, that report states, cost taxpayers $7.9 billion, putting New Jersey fifth from the top in per-capita federal assistance.
The report that provides analysis from the 14 disaster declaration events has the ominous title of New Jersey Atlas of Disaster. By projecting significantly accumulating risk by 2050, rather than using a 2100 time horizon, the Rebuild by Design reports call for a response to a more immediate threat.
Contact the reporter, Vince Conti, at vconti@cmcherald.com.
