To the Editor:
I read the op-ed on guns from Bertram Halbruner and wondered if he was correct, as it did not seem right to me. I am a bit of a statistics nerd, but usually with sports, so I looked up the violent crime statistics from the FBI database and he gave the correct information for Florida.
However, when comparing violent crime with New Jersey, he listed the Total Crime Index for New Jersey. The violent crime statistic for NJ was far lower than in Florida in 2019 and every year for the past 30 years. In 2020, New Jersey was less than half the rate of the national average whereas Florida was about the same as the nation.
When comparing two states, cities, or anything, you must compare them per capita. Simply put, how many things happen per the population?
Florida had 378 incidents of violent crime per 100,000 people in 2019. New Jersey had 206 incidents per 100,000 people. They also had significantly higher murders than NJ, 5.2 vs 2.9 per 100,000 people. New Jersey is actually listed in the top five lowest states with respect to violent crime.
Halbruner is correct in the number of concealed carry permits for both states, but since NJ has fewer than 2,000 vs. 2.5 million for Florida, clearly his conclusion that the number of guns in Florida reducing violent crime is false.
Although violent crime has reduced significantly in Florida, it has reduced just as much in NJ, about 67% over the last 30 years. In fact, violent crime in America prior to Covid has declined 50% in the U.S. Covid has definitely caused an increase in the murder rate throughout the U.S.
Violent crime and the gun debate in this country is a statistical nightmare to examine; however, no one statistic can show cause and effect. Most evidence points to several variables, including poverty, unemployment, dropout rate, drug use, gang prevalence, marital status, gender, etc.
When analyzing statistics, you must be mindful of information and confirmation bias. This is where we get our information and look for a statistic that favors our argument.
Here is an example: We live near Philadelphia, so we hear about the gun violence there all the time and think it is an urban problem in large cities… think Chicago, LA, and NY. They garner much more attention because of the size of the media markets and the sheer volume of statistics. However, using the same FBI statistics, none of the 10 largest cities are among the highest murder rates in the country per capita.
Also, this is not just a blue city or blue state problem. Comparing blue states and red states in gun violence and violent crime per capita might surprise you. Just Google most violent cities or states and you will see. Out of the top 15 states in violent crime, 11 are red states.
As I stated earlier, violent crime is a complex subject, and we can certainly do better as a country. If you want to really shock yourself, compare gun violence in the U.S. with other leading economic countries. According to Bloomberg News, the U.S. total is 25 times greater than the average of all 35 countries on the list.
Finally, I am not against responsible gun ownership at all. I am for sensible legislation that protects society, including a waiting period, background check, social media scrub, training, registration, transfer of sale, and proper gun storage.
I am curious what you think. Here are links to the crime statistics taken from the FBI database: https://bit.ly/3oYf1V0 and https://bit.ly/3Jwicwy.
– Michael Popovick, North Wildwood
