UPDATED: Hurricane Force Winds on the Way

From Cape May County Office of Emergency Management:
October 28, 2012 – 6 P.M.
Hur­ri­cane Sandy is expected to take a turn towards the New Jer­sey coast­line dur­ing the overnight hours. Bands of show­ers and rain asso­ci­ated with Hur­ri­cane Sandy con­tinue to move across the region. The National Weather Ser­vice is call­ing for the poten­tial of all time record flood­ing dur­ing time of high tide both Mon­day morn­ing and evening.
Wide­spread power out­ages are very likely dur­ing this storm event. Expect dete­ri­o­rat­ing weather con­di­tions dur­ing the evening and overnight hours with the worst affects of Hur­ri­cane Sandy being felt dur­ing the day on Mon­day into Tues­day morning.
•Hurricane Sandy will have a severe impact on our region over the next several days:
• Strong damaging sustained winds 35 to 50 mph over a prolonged period of time (24 to 48 hours), with gusts up to near 75 mph. Strongest winds are expected south and east of the I-95 corridor.
• Extremely heavy rainfall.
• Major to record inland flooding along streams and rivers.
• Major to record coastal flooding. The full moon on October 29 just makes things worse.
From the National Weather Service:
National Weather Service-Philadelphia/Mt. Holly
•Major coastal flooding is expected based on the current track forecast. Record coastal flooding is likely.
•A 12 to 15 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) is possible in the Raritan Bay. This would produce record coastal flooding.
•A 10 to 12 foot storm tide is possible along the Atlantic Coast & the Delaware Bay. This would result in record coastal flooding in many locations.
•A 3 to 5 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) is expected in the Chesapeake Bay. This would produce moderate coastal flooding.
Things to focus on regarding coastal flooding for the Atlantic Coast, Delaware Bay & Raritan Bay
•The first high tide cycle today (Sunday) produced minor to moderate coastal flooding. Subsequent high tides will be worse.
•The second high tide cycle this evening will produce moderate to major coastal flooding.
•The two high tides on Monday will produce major to record coastal flooding.
•Seas will continue to build and there will be 10-12 foot breakers in the surf on Monday.
•The two high tides on Monday will be the most dangerous high tides, with major to record coastal flooding expected. Between the coastal flooding and expected high winds, the barrier islands will likely be cut off from the mainland during both high tides.
•Water is the most life threatening aspect of this storm. Hurricane Sandy is already the deadliest hurricane of the 2012 season. Please respect its power and heed the advice of local and state officials regarding any evacuations.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
…SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR…
…WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS…
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.0N 70.9W
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI…780 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA
IN ADDITION…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT…
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY…DELAWARE BAY…AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA…NEW JERSEY…THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA…LONG ISLAND…CONNECTICUT…AND RHODE ISLAND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS…THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA…THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER…THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM…AND IN
FACT…A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES…835 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT CAPE
HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH…76 KM/H…
WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH…91 KM/H…AND THE NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH…65 KM/H…AND A WIND
GUST OF 49 MPH…80 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM TWO NOAA AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY…AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND…BY LATE MONDAY.
STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE…
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND…RARITAN BAY…AND NEW YORK HARBOR…6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY…3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY…2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER…1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER…
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.