Missing Earl’s Punch Dependent on Hurricane Making Northerly Turn

MIAMI — In a press conference Tue., Aug. 30, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said the question remains when Hurricane Earl begins turning to a more northwest track rather than a west-north westerly track. He said the hurricane is expected to make that turn in course later today or tonight.
By Thursday, Earl is expected to take a northerly turn with acceleration to northeast.
“If all this matches out perfectly, it would be parallel to the coast but there is still some concern for a close approach to Cape Hatteras on Thursday and Thursday night and then New England if we don’t turn as sharply to the northeast late Friday into Saturday,” said Read.
He said Earl would produce dangerous swells and surf, rip currents and beach erosion along the Mid Atlantic states as the storm moves up the coast and remain a hurricane into the Canadian Maritimes.
“Even a minor shift back to the west could bring direct impacts to portions of the coast line from the Mid Atlantic northward,” said Read.
A small forecast error of 100 miles in the wrong direction could have a huge impact, said Read.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Craig Fugate said evacuation orders would originate locally, not from his agency. He said Earl was a very large storm.
“We do expect impacts along the coast and because of the proximity to the coast, evacuations may be required if the storm does not make that turn as forecasted and tracks a little bit further towards the west,” said Fugate.
He said FEMA has a team in North Carolina and was sending another to New England.
Fugate said if Earl tracked further west, emergency officials will have to make decisions to evacuate people based on how long it takes to evacuate an area. Too late a warning would not allow sufficient time if the storm tracks west, he said.
“Clearance time” is the time period when tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive in an area, Fugate said officials count backwards on how long it would take to evacuate.
“That’s why the hurricane center provides watches and warnings to provide that lead time,” he said.
The actual decision to evacuate is made community-by-community based on clearance time.
“The longer the clearance time, the earlier they’ll have to go, the more uncertainty in the forecast, said Fugate. “The shorter the clearance time, the higher the verification and the likelihood they may not have to order an evacuation unless they are getting more direct impacts.”
Fugate said Tuesday was the day for people to have their family disaster plans in place and have a destination in mind if an evacuation is ordered.
He suggested travelers build “some flexibility” in their plans for the holiday weekend.