Leaving Early Only Solution to Avoid Hurricane Disaster

CREST HAVEN — We live in a county surrounded by water with two routes of escape that are subject to flooding.
If you want to escape the wrath of a hurricane and not find yourself standing on the roof of your house like a Hurricane Katrina survivor, leave when you are warned even if the sun is out and there is some question as to where the storm will strike.
“When somebody stands up and says we have to evacuate Cape May County, people got to move in a hurry and they should have all their pre-planning done in advance of that,” said Cape May County Emergency Management Director Frank McCall.
Our county has been named by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as the sixth most problematic area in the nation to evacuate in a hurricane, he said.
Landfall in this county is considered to be anywhere between Indian River in Delaware to Toms River in this state.
Cape May County has no hurricane shelters and everyone must evacuate even in a Category 1 storm. It would take 36 hours to evacuate the county during the summer tourist season and emergency management here is dependent upon getting 36 hours notice of a hurricane’s landfall from the National Hurricane Center.
Some good news, in years past the hurricane center only promised 24 hours notice but has amended that plan to 36 hours notice, according to McCall. He said he would prefer 48 hours notice and that was next on his agenda.
McCall said it would take 36 hours to clear out Cape May County but there needs to be an additional 12 to 24 hours of preparation time in advance to access resources of personnel and equipment plus another 12 hours to set the framework for the operation.
The county is on its own for the first 96 to 120 hours before the storm hits as far as receiving any state or federal government help, something he calls unacceptable. The Office of Emergency Management will create emergency proclamations two to three days in advance of the event to notify towns and inform state and federal governments there is a problem here.
McCall said he requested the hurricane center include Atlantic and Cumberland counties under a warning at the same time it issues a hurricane warning for Cape May County.
A model developed by the hurricane center and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers indicates in a Category 1 hurricane, everything east of the Garden State Parkway would be under water
with a storm surge that calculates to about a height of 17 feet, he said.
McCall said the western end of the county would be under water and the northwest corner of the county particularly near Dennis Township into the Maurice River area in Cumberland County.
A full moon can produce a tide height of 5.4 feet. Adding to that is the fetch, the water created by tropical force winds in advance of the eye of the hurricane. That can add 3.5 to 4 feet of water on top of the tide.
That equals a 8.5 to 9 foot tide. The storm surge is on top of that amount of water. Storm surge with a Category 1 hurricane is about 8 feet for Cape May County, said McCall.
“That gives you almost a 17-foot wall of water,” he said.
A 1992 New Jersey Hurricane Evacuation Study, formulated by the State Police Office of Emergency Management, FEMA Region Two, National Weather Service and U.S Army Corps of Engineers, stated the county would have no shelters because a large percentage of the county is potentially vulnerable to coastal flooding from hurricanes. It said no buildings in the county were found to be in conformance with American Red Cross Hurricane Shelter Guidelines regarding susceptibility to high winds and flooding.
“The only thing that’s changed since 1992 is we have gotten more population and the study does not take into consideration rainfall and wind shear,” said McCall.
Atlantic City Electric plans to turn off power for a Category 1 or greater hurricane since outages will begin to occur when the winds near 50 mph.
“If I start adding things up and I say there is going to be a 17-foot wall of water, no electricity for a week and the roads and properties are going to be flooded, we don’t think it’s a good idea that people should suggest that they are not going to leave,” said McCall.
To solve flooding on the two major escape routes, the Garden State Parkway and Route 47, the state would have to raise the height of the roads by 4 feet, he said.
McCall said he has been working with the American Red Cross to establish shelters out of this county and out of harm’s way.
“We think the closest to be available would be somewhere around Glassboro,” he said.
For senior citizens who do not drive or those with health problems, estimated at about 16,000 residents, how do they evacuate when the order comes? McCall said 140 school buses have been made available from Middle Township, Lower Cape May Regional and Lower Township school districts with volunteer drivers.
Those with special needs should register with their local police department and the state Special Needs Registry by dialing simply 2-1-1 or using the Web site: www.registerready.nj.gov
What happens if a day or so into the evacuation process traffic comes to a near standstill or parts of Route 47 and the parkway become impassible due to flooding?
“The easy way out is for people to make plans to evacuate in advance of tropical force winds or landfall of a hurricane,” said McCall.
Using the number of 850,000 persons in the county at the height of summer, McCall said he believed the population here would be lower in an emergent circumstance. He said most vacationers would leave early rather than experience an 18 foot wall of water come through their front door.
“If we make the recommendation to leave, it’s because it’s going to be serious,” said McCall.
He said six, 2010 Hurricane Season Preparedness Exercise Sessions have been held inviting all municipalities in the county to participate. Sessions were also held for county government staff.
The exercise, involving a simulated hurricane with 78 mph winds with a landfall on a Saturday afternoon, was to test the abilities and identify the limitations of municipalities and the county during a Category 1 hurricane impacting the barrier islands and the entire region of the three county area.