MIAMI — National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said Wed. Sept. 1 he is “highly confident” Hurricane Earl will take a turn to the northeast, a change in direction that will spare New Jersey from the worst effects of the storm.
He said he expected Earl to move parallel to the coast of New Jersey.
“The most likely scenario is the center will stay offshore but if the turn is a little later, as we have been talking about with North Carolina aspects, it would bring it closer and we’ll probably be considering later today or early tomorrow (Thursday) what kind of advisory needs to be put up for there,” said Read. “At the very minimum, you’re going to have the strong northeasterly winds, very high seas, rip currents and beach erosion and if it gets closer to you, tropical storm force winds and the associated power outages issues especially along the coast.”
“The steering current is well defined out of the southwest from an approaching trough in the westerlies which is creating severe weather in the plains states Wednesday,” he said.
At later turn in Earl’s direction would bring more of a threat to extreme eastern Long Island or southeast New England, said Read. He said Friday and Saturday, Earl is forecast to accelerate northeastward and by Saturday, Earl will be in the Canadian Maritime provinces.
“The challenge is the turn of the storm is supposed to occur about as the effect’s are beginning on the Outer Banks and the barrier islands of North Carolina,” he said. “Any delay in that turn of six to 12 hours would bring higher end tropical storm force and even hurricane force winds onto the Outer Banks.”
Read described the drop in wind speed of 10 mph of Earl to 125 mph to a “fluctuation” rather than a weakening of the hurricane.
“The chance over the next 24 hours of change in intensity on the upscale still exists,” he said.
Read said he expected Earl would remain a Category 3 storm through Thursday evening when it starts encountering wind shear and eventually cooler waters as it gets off New England.
Cape May – Governor Murphy says he doesn't know anything about the drones and doesn't know what they are doing but he does know that they are not dangerous. Does anyone feel better now?
