The Wrap: Economy, Rules and Public Safety

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June 28-July 4:
Economic Rebound Underway
The 2020 season finished on a high note. Now, several economic projections for 2021 call for strength from beginning to end. However, there are some caveats to be concerned about.
A TD Bank economic forecast for the mid-Atlantic region speaks of a tourism recovery, noting that consumer spending in New Jersey “has been above the pre-pandemic level for several months now and is outperforming the nation.” What a statement. 
Stockton University Economist Oliver Cooke released the summer 2021 issue of South Jersey Economic Review, predicting a solid 2021 season as travelers exhibit “a growing comfort with public places” and dip into significant savings amassed in 2020. 
Both forecasts warn of potential problems on the horizon. The TD Bank piece speaks of New Jersey having the fifth highest foreclosure rate in the nation. It warns of a potential “avalanche in foreclosures” when the protection period ends. Cooke points to a “wildcard” in potential “economic disruption tied to additional Covid variants in the fall and winter months.”
County tops in second home mortgages
Cooke spoke of the Covid recession’s impact on the regional housing market, noting the special importance of the real estate market on Cape May County. He suggested that the dynamic of quasi-permanent residency by second homeowners may come to impact the availability of summer seasonal rentals. Keep an eye out for some more competition to book a week full of sunburn and tequila. 
A National Association of Realtors report showed that Cape May County topped the nation in counties where “second home mortgages account for the largest share of home purchase loans.” The county was ranked third in the nation in the percentage of seasonal or occasional use homes in the total housing stock. 
Thou shall not ignore the Covidcaveat 
All the health metrics continue to trend in the right direction. Case counts are low,with a 30-day average steady at four new cases per day. The state’s COVID Activity Report for the week ending June 26 shows the southeast region as an area of low virus activity. The state dashboard shows the county with 57% of its total permanent population fully vaccinated. 
The worry remains what Cooke identified, the intrusion of highly transmissible variants as we come out of the warm summer months. National health officials have been warning the public for weeks about the rising threat of the delta variant. One simple statistic in New Jersey shows the reason for that concern. 
The state Variant Surveillance Report for the week ending May 22 showed the delta variant present in 3.1% of all variants sequenced in the previous four weeks. One week later, that number was 5.1%. A week after that, the statistic grew to 7.3%. In the most recent report for the week ending June 12, the variant accounted for 15.6% over the previous four-week period. 
While county Health Department reports rightly stress the success of the county’s vaccination efforts, the fact remains that the vaccination rate continues to slow. The county has an admirable 90% of those over 65 with at least one shot. Still, 57% of the population fully vaccinated, while high by many comparative standards, is still well below the desired level for herd immunity. This is especially worrying because the delta variant has shown a great ability to infect those below the age of 65, where the vaccination rate is lower. 
The state released guidelines for the return to “safe, enriching school environments.”  
State Hurts Local Planning Efforts with Slow Development of Rules
New Jersey regulates things. This is no surprise to residents. There is no doubt that state officials believe in the exercise of their regulatory powers. Yet, the state can take its time developing the rules, often leaving local economic activity mired in uncertainty. 
Middle Township did not rush to ban all classes of the emerging cannabis industry as many other towns in the county were doing. The municipality kept open the possibility of welcoming some aspects of a new industry, a position that one would expect the state to be sympathetic to. An ongoing lack of clarity in state rules led the municipality to resort toa ban on cannabis businesses, something they can potentially revisit later.
Across the county, budgets for 2021 were held up because communities needed clarity on state rules for the use of American Rescue Plan Act(ARPA) relief funds. The rules finally arrived,leading to 2021 budgets being adopted in late June.  
In March, it became clear that New Jersey would receive funding for a Homeowner Assistance Fund (HAF). The Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency is still formulating the rules and its HAF plan will need to gain federal approval. 
Public Safety 
A Cape May Council member was released from the county Correctional Facility after two weeks of incarceration on charges of cyber harassment, stalking, posting of obscene material, impersonation and contempt related to two women. He awaits a pre-indictment conference scheduled Aug. 22. The county Correctional Facility also experienced an in-custody death of an inmate. An investigation is ongoing.
Police remained busy with a carjacking in Rio Grande,which saw the car recovered in Trenton and the perpetrator still at-large. North Wildwood police arrested four men in connection with the robbery of two individuals walking near 25th and Surf avenues.
A Dennis Township teacher was arrested and charged with abuse and child endangerment. The teacher has been suspended.
Spout Off of the Week
Cape May County – To the Court House spouter, Florida does have a sales tax. It is 7%. They also have a resort tax that is added on to every rental that is less than 6 months. The resort tax is an additional 5%. They use the resort tax to maintain the beaches and fund other projects that are related to the beach. Florida does not have a state income tax. But they tax everything you buy. Beach tag fees are necessary and hopefully are used wisely.
Read more spouts at spoutoff.capemaycountyherald.com.