Does Dry Winter and Spring Mean Summer Drought?

RIO GRANDE — We’re already one-third through the month and there really haven’t been many of those showers that April is so famous for. This past winter wasn’t exactly a great time to be selling snow shovels, either. Does the lack of precipitation the last few months mean we are doomed to brown, crunchy lawns, bone-dry pools and empty water glasses at restaurants this summer?
“It’s tough to say,” said Raymond Kruzdlo, a senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly. “We have seen negative departures, or below normal rainfall conditions the last three months. That isn’t necessarily earth shattering. We had the same thing in 2011 for a short time, but 2011 still turned out to be a very wet year.”
While the National Weather Service does not declare droughts or drought warnings, weather does play a large part in the declaration of a drought, along with water usage.
“We do supply information to the state, but the state of New Jersey and the DEP (Department of Environmental Protection) is the agency that actually has responsibility for it,” said Kruzdlo.
Droughts are multifaceted, said the hydrologist. “There’s a meteorological drought,” he said. “That is only one piece of the puzzle that they would look at. They would also look at the water resources. It’s more of a resource issue for the state.”
Kruzdlo explained even if rainfall totals are low as long as reservoirs are filled and can support usage, the probability of drought runs low. For people in Cape May County, however, virtually all water comes either from wells or from aquifers.
“If groundwater starts to dry up, that could be an issue,” he said. “I know groundwater is one of the aspects they look into, but it is one piece of the puzzle. I’ve seen times where people have been hurt by the lack of water yet a drought watch has not been put in effect statewide.”
“This winter has been dry,” said Kruzdlo.
The timing of dry weather also plays into whether or not reservoirs and ground water levels are depleted.
“It also depends on the time of season the lack of rain occurs,” Kruzdlo said. “We’re much better off that it happened in the wintertime because we’re not pulling as many resources. No one is watering their lawn, no one is washing their car, so we are much, much better off when you have a deficit in rainfall over the winter months.”
Summer becomes a more challenging time for water resources as people fill up pools and water lawns, thereby taking water out of reservoirs and wells more quickly.
“You have all the agriculture that’s in the state using water, which you don’t have in the winter,” said Kruzdlo.
With several months ahead before the onset of summer, Kruzdlo is hopeful that the atmosphere will correct itself and get back on track.
“I don’t think there is going too much of an issue,” said Kruzdlo. “I don’t want to speak for the state but because of all the population and all the resources that are needed to keep millions of people going, it doesn’t take long for a drought.”