Could Jersey Coast Experience a Tsunami?

NEWARK — You may have seen headlines in other publications or heard the warnings of TV evangelist Jim Bakker of a possible tsunami that could cause a great deal of damage to the U.S. East Coast.
Could a huge tsunami devastate the Jersey coast?
Dr. Alexander Gates, chairman of the Department of Earth Science at Rutgers-Newark said a theory is if a portion of Cumbre Vieja volcano in the Canary Islands collapses into the ocean, it could generate a large tsunami.
He said landslide-generated tsunamis have occurred and could cross an ocean.
“It’s not likely at all,” he said, noting most landslides move downhill slowly not generating a wave.
Underwater landslides have generated significant tsunamis but the energy dissipates as moves away from its source point, said Gates.
The tsunami in Japan was the result of a fault the size of California that lifted up 15 feet. He said a landslide tsunami would not have a wave of that size.
There are unstable sediments off the East Coast of the U.S. that could generate a slide down the east side which would could generate a tsunami much closer to the shore which would do damage, said Gates. He said that is more likely than a tsunami from a Cumbre Vieja volcano landslide.
Gates asked how many tsunamis have come ashore on the East Coast during the time it has been occupied. He said a small tsunami is more likely than a killer one.
“What we do with earthquakes and tsunamis is look for reoccurrence, how often does it happen?” said Gates.
He said in contrast, Japan and Indonesia have frequent tsunamis.
The East Coast of the U.S. is more vulnerable to a volcano exploding in the Caribbean which could generate a very large wave. He compared the Canary Islands to Hawaii where volcanoes tend not to produce tsunamis.
David A. Robinson, state climatologist at Rutgers University, Piscataway, told the Herald tsunamis have been reported along the coast of New Jersey but “nothing huge.” He said they have been recorded by tidal gauges.
“They’ve been born of earthquakes in the Caribbean near Puerto Rico, an earthquake and an offshore landslide down the Continental Slope off Newfoundland and even potentially earthquakes in Spain and Portugal,” said Robinson.
As for the Canary Island theory, Robinson said, “I’ve heard of such apocalyptic types of scenarios but there’s never been anything of that nature observed in New Jersey,” said Robinson.
He said rogue waves as high as 10 feet sometimes come into shore which may be associated with distant unrecognized seismic activity. Robinson said it may also be just the calculus of wave development that occasionally “with just the right synchroneities you can take some smaller waves and create a larger wave.”
That may be a mathematical event that rarely occurs but it has been observed along the Jersey shore. He said it has caused fatalities.
Robinson said it has never been documented that a bonafied, significant tsunami has impacted the Jersey coast. Rogue waves have been seen here, he said.
The Jersey coast has the potential for a tsunami but not the same potential as the Pacific or Indian oceans “by any means but it’s not out of the question.”
Tsunamis move through the open water at a speed of 500 mph, which would give the East Coast six hours warning of a tsunami originating in the Canary Islands.
The scenario of a Canary Island landslide is apocalyptic.
“My advice there is to relax,” said Robinson. “If you live 60 million or 100 million years, then maybe you’ll have the chance to experience something like that.”
The week of March 26-30 is National Tsunami Preparedness Week.
The National Weather Service is offering safety tips for tsunamis. Some warning signs:
• A strong earthquake lasting 20 seconds or more near the coast.
• A noticeable rapid rise or fall in coastal waters.
• A loud roaring noise from the ocean.
The weather service advises planning evacuation routes from your home, school, workplace and other places you could be where tsunamis could happen. If possible, pick areas 100 feet above sea level or go as far as 2 miles inland, away from the coastline.
If you cannot get this high or far, go as high or far as you can. Every foot inland or upward may make a difference. You should be able to reach your safe location on foot within 15 minutes. An alternative in some areas is “vertical evacuation” by going to a high floor of a tall building.
It seems much of that advice would not be applicable to Cape May County where a two mile drive may place you in Delaware Bay.